Housing, Auto Slumps May Defy Usual Role As Recession Harbingers

Greg Ip | Washington, DC | December 14

Wall Street Journal - New home construction is plummeting. Car sales are weakening. Investors have driven long-term interest rates well below the short-term rates set by the Federal Reserve. All these factors are present today, and all have been precursors of past recessions.

But the U.S. central bank and much of Wall Street are now betting that the old rules don't apply, and that a recession next year, while possible, is unlikely.

Denial.


Sean Paul Kelley December 13, 2006 - 11:34pm
( categories: News | Business | Economics: USA )

Print lots of money? There you go, recession gone, savings gone, and so is the debt. 2 out of 3 aint bad! Do I hear a million dollars for this loaf of bread? Two Million dollars?

Joaquin December 14, 2006 - 6:50pm

with the (soon to be) readjusted Yuan and buckets of greenbacks they don't want. Wall Street will soar--and unfortunately, we'll have lost whatever industrial infrastructure we have left.

Petronius December 14, 2006 - 7:35pm

In the 90's, how often did we hear from the DotComs that "the old rules" of "the old economy" were overturned &/or retired &/or obsolete? The housing slide is potentially a BIG deal. This economy has been fueled by Consumer Spending, and that spending has been largely fueled by home equity. When you start to feel your revenue stream is drying up, it's reasonable to pull back - at least a little - so it follows that big-ticket purchases (ie: cars) will be postponed. I think we're beginning to feel some pretty worrisome ripples, tho' I'm not sure I see the Full Cascade into deep recession yet.

We'll have to see how things shake out after the holidays, but so far, retail sales in some sectors are looking pretty good (up by 1% last month).

Anybody have a sense of what's to come from the macro perspective?

EvilleMike
A political party is just a lynch mob with a slightly wider agenda.

EvilleMike December 15, 2006 - 12:42pm

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