(UFGETNT) S. Korean intelligence agency detects 3.58 magnitude seismic tremor in North Korea
(END)

http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061009/430100000020061009115247E8.html

Reuters

SINGAPORE, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Oil edged up further to intraday highs above $60 a barrel on Monday, after North Korea said it carried out a nuclear test and as traders expected OPEC producers to cut supplies.

North Korea's Central News Agency said on Monday the country had carried out a nuclear test, driving up the dollar but only giving a brief lift to oil. The country is not an oil producer or major consumer so oil traders are focusing less on North Korea than on potential disruption in producers Iran, Iraq and Nigeria.

U.S. crude traded 68 cents higher to $60.44 a barrel by 0320 GMT, after hitting a high of $60.48, adding to gains earlier in the session as OPEC is expected to formalise on Monday a cut to its official production ceiling of 28 million barrels per day (bpd) by 1 million bpd.

The plan by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, expands on marginal supply cuts announced last month by Nigeria and Venezuela.

Oil prices have halted a slide from a record-high of $78.40 in July, but fundamentals are weighed down by bulging inventories, with U.S. distillate stocks at their highest level since 1999.

The dispute over Iran's nuclear programme remained another potentially bullish factor for the oil market.

Is this big, small, medium?

Mon, Oct 9 2006, 03:39 GMT

Reuters

By Ian Chua

HONG KONG, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The yen skidded to its weakest in seven months and Asian stocks were rattled on Monday after North Korea said it had conducted a nuclear test.

North Korea had carried out an underground nuclear test, the country news agency said, and South Korea said it had detected a tremor in North Korea on Monday morning.

Worries about North Korea have cast a shadow over otherwise strong Asian markets in the past several days as investors have braced for an escalation of tensions.

U.S. geological officials said they had not detected any seismic activity on the Korean peninsula in the last 48 hours. Japan said it could not confirm a nuclear test had been carried out.

After opening higher, South Korea's benchmark stock index, KOSPI <.KS11>, reversed direction on the reports, falling as much as 3.6 percent to levels last seen in Aug. 14.

The won was down nearly 1 percent.

"Our science research section has safely and successfully conducted an underground nuclear test on Oct. 9," North Korea's KCNA said.

Japan's financial markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday but the MSCI's index of shares in Asia outside of Japan <.MSCIAPJ> dropped more than 1 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index <.HSI> and Singapore's Straits Times Index <.STI> fell more than 1 percent.

Main indexes in Jakarta <.JKSE>, Sydney <.AXJO>, Bangkok <.SETI> and Manila <.PSI> were also lower on the day.

The dollar rose as high as 119.15 yen after the reports on the nuclear test and the euro strengthened above 150 yen .

U.S. crude rose 71 cents to $60.47 ahead of a formal deal by OPEC to cut 1 million barrels a day of crude from oversupplied markets.

Spot gold climbed as high as $579.25, up from around $573.30 on Friday.

Bullion traders said the metal was largely boosted by firmer oil prices and the precious metal didn't show a strong reaction to the North Korean news.

By KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writer
10 minutes ago

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061009/ap_on_re_as/us_nkorea

U.S. government officials said Sunday that a wide range of agencies were looking into the report of a North Korean nuclear test.

The officials, speaking anonymously because of the political sensitivity of the situation, said the U.S. was taking the reports seriously.

North Korea said Monday that it had performed its first-ever nuclear test. South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the test was conducted at 9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday.

A White House official said administration officials have not been able to confirm the report independently, but are trying to learn more about it.

U.S. intelligence has been closely watching several sites in North Korea that could be used for a nuclear test. Movements of people, automobiles, fencing and other items convinced some analysts last week that a test could come soon. Guest quarters overlooking one site were also of interest.

Over the last week, U.S. officials have been anticipating news of a nuclear weapons test in North Korea.

"It would be a very provocative act by the North Koreans," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday. "A North Korean nuclear test ... would create a qualitatively different situation on the Korean peninsula. I think that you would see that a number of states in the region would need to reassess where they are now with North Korea."

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said Thursday that a successful North Korean nuclear weapon test would show weakness on the part of the international community.

"And that failure ... is something that the international community would have to register and ask itself how comfortable are we being that ineffective in this situation," Rumsfeld said.

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Tuesday that a North Korean test "would be contrary to the interests of all of North Korea's neighbors and to peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region."

The U.N. Security Council urged North Korea on Friday to cancel the planned nuclear test and return immediately to talks on scrapping its nuclear weapons program, saying that exploding such a device would threaten international peace and security.

A statement adopted unanimously by the council expressed "deep concern" over North Korea's announcement.

North Korea’s Bomb Can Kill 200,000 — Russian Experts
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/10/08/200people.shtml

...
The weapon, with the same 20-kiloton yield as the bomb dropped on Nagasaki, is about 10ft long and weighs four tons, the experts were quoted as saying. It is too big to fit on to any missile Kim Jong Il’s regime currently possesses but if it were detonated above ground it could destroy everything within five square miles.
...

http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/10/09/koreatest.shtml
...
Russia’s ITAR-TASS news agency quoted the head of a Defense Ministry department Lt. Gen. Vladimir Verkhovtsev as saying that Russian military monitoring systems “detected the test of a nuclear weapon in North Korea. It is 100 percent (certain) that it was an underground nuclear explosion.”
...

Geologists in the South Detect Man-Made Blast
By Anthony Faiola, Glenn Kessler and Dafna Linzer, Washington Post Foreign Service, Monday, October 9, 2006; 3:52 AM

TOKYO, Oct. 9 -- North Korea declared on Monday that it had conducted its first nuclear test, a claim verified by monitoring authorities in China and South Korea that turns the Pyongyang government into the world's newest and most volatile nuclear power.

Seoul government officials informed U.S. officials that the explosion, registering 3.58 on the Richter scale, had taken place at 10:36 a.m. local time. Minutes later, North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency announced the test, calling it "a historical event that has brought our military and our people huge joy."

The announcement brought a hailstorm of swift international condemnations and touched off a chain reaction of security jitters that caused the Japanese yen to fall to seven-month lows and sent the South Korean currency and stock market plunging. South Korean officials said they detected a significant man-made explosion in the barren northeast of the peninsula, substantiating the Pyongyang government's claim as the world's eighth proven nuclear power.

Chinese and South Korean authorities immediately condemned the test. North Korea "has ignored the widespread opposition of the international community and conducted a nuclear test brazenly on October 9," China's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its Web site. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this."

===
Analysis
Reported Test 'Fundamentally Changes the Landscape' for U.S. Officials

By Glenn Kessler, Washington Post Staff Writer, Monday, October 9, 2006; Page A14

North Korea's apparent nuclear test last night may well be regarded as a failure of the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation policy.

Since George W. Bush became president, North Korea has restarted its nuclear reactor and increased its stock of weapons-grade plutonium, so it may now have enough for 10 or 11 weapons, compared with one or two when Bush took office.

North Korea's test could also unleash a nuclear arms race in Asia, with Japan and South Korea feeling pressure to build nuclear weapons for defensive reasons.

Yet a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately that they would welcome a North Korean test, regarding it as a clarifying event that would forever end the debate within the Bush administration about whether to solve the problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed to destabilize North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's grip on power.

Now U.S. officials will push for tough sanctions at the U.N. Security Council, and are considering a raft of largely unilateral measures, including stopping and inspecting every ship that goes in and out of North Korea.

"This fundamentally changes the landscape now," one U.S. official said last night.
===

The AP has the text of the announcement from North Korea.

Oct 10, 2006

Pyongyang's 60-year obsession
By Bertil Lintner

North Korea's "Great Leader", Kim Il-sung, was obsessed with nuclear weapons even before the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was proclaimed on September 9, 1948. At the end of World War II, thousands of Korean workers were repatriated from Japan, and ended up in the northern, then Soviet-occupied, part of the Korean peninsula. Many of them had been working in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and had been there when American nuclear bombs fell on those cities in August 1945. They brought with them stories of the ultimate "doomsday" weapon, which the Americans possessed, and had used with such devastating outcomes.

The fear of nuclear weapons grew even stronger during the Korean

War, when the United States contemplated launching nuclear strikes against the North. On December 9, 1950, the commander of the US forces, General Douglas MacArthur, even submitted a list of targets for twenty-six atomic bombs to halt the advance of the North Korean army and its Chinese allies.

Since then, North Korea has wanted to possess nuclear weapons as a means of countering what it perceives as a military threat from the US and thus ensuring the continued existence of the regime in Pyongyang. Kim Il-sung's successor, his son Kim Jong-il, has also always perceived nuclear weapons as an important aspect of greatness. In 1998, the high-ranking North Korean defector Hwang Jang Yop described the reason behind North Korea's nuclear strategy:

"For one thing, they [the North Koreans] will use them [nuclear weapons] if South Korea starts a war. For another, they intend to devastate Japan to prevent the United States from participating. Would it sill participate, even after Japan is devastated? That is how they think."

In more recent years, there is also another, more acute reason why North Korea believes it must be armed with nuclear weapons: the fear of becoming the next Iraq. In the October 3 statement announcing the plan to test a nuclear bomb, the North Korean foreign ministry declared: "A people without a reliable war deterrent are bound to meet a tragic death and the sovereignty of their country is bound to be wantonly infringed upon. This is a bitter lesson taught by the bloodshed resulting from the law of the jungle in different parts of the world." On January 29, 2002, US President George W Bush lumped Iraq, Iran and North Korea in an "axis of evil" and a threat to American security. Shortly afterwards, preparations for the invasion of Iraq began as part of Bush's ongoing "war on terror".

North Korea began to do research into such a deterrent only a few years after the end of the Korean War. Alexander Zhebin, a former Pyongyang-based correspondent for the Russian newspaper Izvestiya, wrote in a 2000 paper: "In 1956, the United Institute for Nuclear Research (UINR) was established in the city of Dubna near Moscow to serve as an international science and research center for the socialist countries. The DPRK (North Korea) was among the institute's original members." The UINR had laboratories and research institutes specializing in high-energy physics, neutron physics, and nuclear issues.

In 1965 a basic nuclear research reactor became operational at Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang, and the nuclear program had begun. The center at Yongbyon was set up with Soviet assistance and, apart from the research reactor, included a radiochemical laboratory, a K-60,000 cobalt installation, and a B-25 betatron, a sophisticated apparatus for accelerating electrons in a circular path by magnetic induction. North Korea was taking its first steps towards developing its own nuclear power. The Soviets provided all the blueprints, and soon Yongbyon was a sprawling complex of circular buildings housing the reactor storage facilities and a special laundry to decontaminate protective clothing and undergarments for the scientists and the workers, and a boiler plant. Satellite images of the reactor showed no attached power lines, which would have been the case if it were meant for electric power generation.

In the 1960s and 70s, more than 300 North Korean nuclear scientists were trained at the Moscow Engineering Physics Institute, the Bauman Higher Technical School, and the Moscow Energy Institute. Some North Koreans even worked at the nuclear scientific research complexes not only in Dubna but also in Obninsk.

This training in the Soviet Union came to an end when the communist state collapsed in 1991, but East German and Russian nuclear and missile scientists were working in North Korea throughout the 1990s, most probably in a private capacity. In December 1992, Russian security minister Victor Barannikov reported in a speech before the Russian parliament that his men had blocked the departure of 64 Russian missile specialists to "a third country" which had hired them to build military-purpose missile installations capable of delivering nuclear weapons. Barannikov did not specify what country it was, but Russian journalists managed to find some of the missile specialists and learned, not surprisingly, that it was North Korea.

In an even more bizarre attempt to obtain know-how from its former ally, two North Korean intelligence agents were arrested near Vladivostok in 1994 when they tried to sell eight kilograms of heroin to raise money to acquire Russian military secrets. In particular, they were interested in buying technologies related to the dismantling of nuclear reactors at one of the shipyards in the Russian Far East. Now, any assistance - private or otherwise - from the former Soviet bloc appears to have stopped.

MORE at Asia Times

US, Japan to take "decisive action" against North Korea
Posted: 09 October 2006 2117 hrs

SEOUL : The United States and Japan agreed Monday to take "decisive action" against North Korea at the United Nations Security Council after the communist state announced it had conducted a nuclear test.

US President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reached the agreement in a 15-minute telephone conversation, the Japanese embassy in Seoul said in a press release.

Abe, who took office last month, arrived in Seoul from Beijing on the last leg of a two-day tour aimed at mending strained relations with his two Asian neighbours.

Bush and Abe viewed Pyongyang's announcement as "categorically unacceptable", a "grave threat to peace and stability in the international community", and a "serious challenge to the (nuclear) non-proliferation regime," the statement said.

more at CNA

Posted on Mon, Oct. 09, 2006

Iran blames U.S. for N. Korea nuke test
ALI AKBAR DAREINI
Associated Press

TEHRAN, Iran - Iranian state radio Monday blamed North Korea's reported nuclear test on U.S. pressure, accusing Washington of "humiliating" the impoverished communist country.

"Not only did the United States not lift the sanctions it had imposed on North Korea, it even increased the diplomatic pressure. Such pressure finally led North Korea to conduct its nuclear test," Iranian state radio said in a commentary.

"North Korea's nuclear test was a reaction to America's threats and humiliation," it said.

.....

Iranian state radio accused Washington of "double standards" in its policy on nuclear nonproliferation, pointing to its attitude toward Israel and India. India has tested a nuclear bomb and Israel is widely believed to possess such weapons, but the United States is not currently applying sanctions against them.

In an oblique message to the United Nations, which is considering taking steps against Iran's nuclear program, Iranian state radio said that the Security Council should not punish North Korea but disarm the nuclear arsenals of the great powers.

"Instead of imposing comprehensive sanctions on North Korea ... it would be better if the U.N. Security Council adopt a wise decision and seek full implementation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty," it said.

"That is to say, it should seek to disarm the countries that currently possess nuclear weapons and provide conditions so that signatories to the treaty will be able to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes," it said.

AP

The tests works well for Iran

Rest of world sees the North Korean test as a failure in Bush's foreign policy. Only American MSM doesn't make the connection. World opinions on the issue

http://www.miserywatch.com/2006/10/north_korea_fal.html

GOP Sen. Rick Santorum, facing a bitter re-election battle, said in a barely veiled reference to Democrats _ "North Korea's actions cause great concern. This is no time for inexperienced, weak leaders."

Democrats Assail Bush's N. Korea Policy

oh yeah, lets stay the course with our weak minded shit for brains prez instead - I'm sure there is more damage he can bring about

North Korea: A Nuclear Threat

Is Kim Jong Il ready to provoke a regional crisis? An exclusive account of what Pyongyang really wants.

By Selig S. Harrison
Newsweek International

Oct. 16, 2006 issue - On Sept. 19, 2005, North Korea signed a widely heralded denuclearization agreement with the United States, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. Pyongyang pledged to "abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs." In return, Washington agreed that the United States and North Korea would "respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together and take steps to normalize their relations."

Four days later, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sweeping financial sanctions against North Korea designed to cut off the country's access to the international banking system, branding it a "criminal state" guilty of counterfeiting, money laundering and trafficking in weapons of mass destruction.

The Bush administration says that this sequence of events was a coincidence. Whatever the truth, I found on a recent trip to Pyongyang that North Korean leaders view the financial sanctions as the cutting edge of a calculated effort by dominant elements in the administration to undercut the Sept. 19 accord, squeeze the Kim Jong Il regime and eventually force its collapse. My conversations made clear that North Korea's missile tests in July and its threat last week to conduct a nuclear test explosion at an unspecified date "in the future" were directly provoked by the U.S. sanctions. In North Korean eyes, pressure must be met with pressure to maintain national honor and, hopefully, to jump-start new bilateral negotiations with Washington that could ease the financial squeeze. When I warned against a nuclear test, saying that it would only strengthen opponents of negotiations in Washington, several top officials replied that "soft" tactics had not worked and they had nothing to lose.

It was no secret to journalists covering the September 2005 negotiations, or to the North Koreans, that the agreement was bitterly controversial within the administration and represented a victory for State Department advocates of a conciliatory approach to North Korea over proponents of "regime change" in Pyongyang. The chief U.S. negotiator, Christopher Hill, faced strong opposition from key members of his own delegation at every step of the way.

It was particularly galling to Victor Cha, director for Asian Affairs in the National Security Council and to Richard Lawless, assistant secretary of Defense, that Hill agreed to conduct intensive bilateral negotiations with North Korea in Beijing prior to the six-party talks. In their eyes, bilateral talks amount to implicit diplomatic recognition, and the "steps to normalize relations" envisaged in the agreement would legitimize a rogue regime. When Hill hosted a dinner in Beijing for the chief North Korean negotiator, Vice Foreign Minister Kim Gye Gwan, Cha and Lawless refused to attend. When a draft agreement was finalized, they held up final agreement for three days, unsuccessfully attempting to get the White House to insist on tougher terms. The issue was finally resolved only when China insisted on sticking to the draft agreement.

During six hours of intensive give-and-take with Kim Gye Gwan, both in his office and in two one-on-one dinners with only an interpreter present, he said over and over to me, "How can you expect us to return to negotiations when it's clear your administration is paralyzed by divisions between those who hate us and those who want to negotiate seriously? At the very time when we were engaged in such a long dialogue last year, your side was planning for sanctions. Cheney did this to prevent further dialogue that would lead to peaceful coexistence. So many of your leaders, even the president, have talked about regime change. We have concluded that your administration is dysfunctional."

much more

INTERVIEW-China military expert urges gradual sanctions
11 Oct 2006 09:13:52 GMT

By Chris Buckley

BEIJING, Oct 11 (Reuters) - China is likely to back gradually escalating sanctions to punish North Korea for a reported nuclear test, but resist squeezing Beijing's food and energy lifeline to isolated Pyongyang, a retired Chinese major-general told Reuters.

China may pressure North Korea, beginning with military sanctions, while leaving room for compromise and renewed talks aimed at dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear weapons, said Xu Guangyu, who worked on nuclear weapons policy in the People's Liberation Army command.

But Beijing is likely to resist harsher penalties that it fears could threaten the impoverished North, Xu told Reuters.

"My personal judgment is that China certainly won't take part in sanctions that involve grain or energy, because it's a matter of humanitarian principle. The North Korean people wouldn't survive," said Xu, now a researcher at the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, a government-sponsored institute.

The retired officer's comments shed some light on the steps China may back as the U.N. Security Council debates a response to North Korea's apparent underground nuclear blast on Monday.

China, long the sole significant supporter of its communist neighbour, broke its usual reticence and called Pyongyang's test a "brazen" betrayal of promises. As one of five permanent members of the Security Council, China will have a crucial say in what sanctions are finally imposed.

Beijing's U.N. Ambassador, Wang Guangya, said on Tuesday that "punitive actions" against Pyongyang were likely, but did not say which of Washington's proposed steps he could support.

A U.S. draft resolution includes a total arms embargo, a freeze on any transfer or development of weapons of mass destruction and a ban on luxury goods.

Xu said China would probably support a set of gradually tougher sanctions, beginning with a ban on shipments of guns and other conventional arms.

China provides North Korea with much of its oil, and Washington and its allies have said Beijing should use its economic leverage to pressure Pyongyang.

In the first eight months of 2006, China exported 369,643 tons of crude oil to North Korea, an increase of 0.7 percent on the same time last year, according to Chinese customs figures.

But Xu said squeezing North Korea's economic arteries would risk regime collapse and regional instability, and U.N.-backed measures should not push North Korea into dangerous desperation.

"It will be difficult to avoid sanctions. The key is their intensity," he said. "Sanctions should be in stages, not too far in one step."

more

Wednesday October 11, 2006 2:46 PM

AP Photo XGB120

TOKYO (AP) - Japan on Wednesday imposed a total ban on North Korean imports and said ships from the impoverished nation were prohibited from entering Japanese ports as punishment for its apparent nuclear test.

North Korean nationals are also prohibited from entering Japan, with limited exceptions, the Cabinet Office said in a statement released after an emergency security meeting late Wednesday.

``Japan is in gravest danger, if we consider that North Korea has advanced both its missile and nuclear capabilities,'' Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters following the decision.

``We cannot tolerate North Korea's actions if we are to protect Japanese lives and property,'' he said. ``These measures were taken to protect the peace.''

A total ban on imports and ships could be disastrous for North Korea, whose produce like clams and mushroom earns precious foreign currency on the Japanese market. Ferries also serve as a major conduit of communication between the two countries, which have no diplomatic relations.

Tokyo has already halted food aid and imposed limited financial sanctions against North Korea after it test-fired seven missiles into waters between Japan and the Korean peninsula in July, including one capable of reaching the United States.

Japan has reason to react sternly. It lies well within the range of North Korean missiles, though Pyongyang isn't believed capable yet of mounting one with a nuclear weapon. Tokyo has also been exasperated by Pyongyang's kidnappings of Japanese nationals in the 1970's and 80's, which the North only admitted to several years ago.

Some within the region have raised concerns that the North's brinkmanship could give Japan a pretext to go nuclear next, triggering countermoves by suspicious Asian neighbors. Abe, however, has insisted Tokyo will stick to its postwar no-nuclear weapons policy.

more

The U.S. doesn't have very much support for hard sanctions, Russia and China certainly aren't supporting tough language. And much of the world blames Bush anyhow

http://www.miserywatch.com/2006/10/north_korea_fal.html