Middle East Crisis Open Thread

Team Agonist | San Antonio | July 14

The Agonist - This is the Middle East Crisis open-thread. We all hope this doesn't turn into the July War, but these days? Please post all developments, news stories, comments, links, theories, ideas, etc. here in this thread.

Israelis kill 45, including 8 Canadians on vacation, in a reprisal attack on Hezbollah:

Israeli warplanes engaged in a fierce bombardment of targets in south Beirut and southern Lebanon, killing some 45 people and wounding more than 100, according to local reports. Among the dead were eight Canadians, with another six critically injured, largely from an air attack on the border town of Aitaroun, where they were vacationing, the Canadian government reported.

More after the jump ~ This is the open thread.

Please go read this background article, written just before the crisis errupted. `Ian

From the NYTimes:

The radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr said Friday that Iraqis would not “sit by with folded hands” while Israel struck at Lebanon, signaling a possible increase in attacks from his mercurial militia, the Mahdi Army.

In a written statement, Mr. Sadr also said that he considered the United States culpable in the conflict unfolding in Lebanon, since America was the largest foreign ally of Israel.

Two from Stratfor:

The Israeli army July 15 confirmed earlier reports that four Israeli sailors are missing from a naval vessel that came under attack July 14 off the coast of Lebanon, and said operations are in progress to locate them.

And:

Israeli aircraft struck the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) Economy Ministry building in Gaza early July 15 local time, setting the building on fire. No casualties have been reported.

Two more from Stratfor:

Four Israeli troops are missing from a ship that was attacked and seriously damaged by an explosives-laden drone off the coast of Lebanon, Al Jazeera reported July 14, citing an unnamed Israeli politician. The Israeli military is reportedly searching for the four soldiers.

And:

Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said July 14 in a speech broadcast on Hezbollah media outlets that his group will strike "beyond Haifa and what is beyond, beyond Haifa." Hezbollah has the capability to launch an attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, from Southern Lebanon.

Bush Won't Pressure Israel for Cease-Fire

(Associated Press) President Bush rejected Lebanon's calls for a cease-fire in escalating Mideast violence on Friday, saying only that Israel should try to limit civilian casualties as it steps up attacks on its neighbor.

"The president is not going to make military decisions for Israel," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

Ceasefire Conditions Floated by Olmert

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert set three conditions for a U.N.-brokered cease-fire in Lebanon on July 14. According to Israeli government spokeswoman Miri Eisin, "The prime minister is prepared to finish our operations in Lebanon if Hezbollah releases our two soldiers, stops its rocket fire and if the Lebanese government decides to implement U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559," which calls for the disarming of all Lebanese militias, most notably Hezbollah and armed Palestinian groups based in Lebanon.

Iran warns Israel not to attack Syria. (Via Martini Republic, which is covering the ongoing mess in the Middle East very well.)

Israel Extends Strikes Deeper Into Lebanon

Israel extended punishing air strikes deeper inside Lebanon today, as President Bush rebuffed a Lebanese request that he push Israel for a ceasefire.

Israeli warplanes hit areas in Beirut’s suburbs that are linked to the militant group Hezbollah, cut the main highway between the capital and Damascus in Syria, and struck power plants near Beirut and a Palestinian training camp near the Syrian border.

From Stratfor's Friday Geopolitical Diary:

Two Katyusha rockets hit the Israeli port city of Haifa on Thursday, demonstrating the formidable reach of Hezbollah's rocket capabilities from southern Lebanon. Almost immediately afterward, Hezbollah issued an official denial of the attack. Following the denial, Stratfor received highly reliable information that the two missiles were not authorized by the core leadership, indicating major cracks in Hezbollah's chain of command.

I'm not surprised we are seeing factions in each of Israel, the US, Iran and Hezbollah playing off of each other to manuever everyone else into a decision. The Israeli's have called up the reserves and the speculation is the Litani River at a minimum, perhaps the outskirts of Beirut.

Oh, and Kenny Baer, aside from having his own personal mole placed in the Iranian Ministry of Defense, asks a really good question: "[W]here is W?"

Same thing he was doing on 9/11. Same thing he was doing during Katrina, too. Nothing.

From FP Passport: Israeli ambassador refuses to rule out attacking Iran

And video from Crooks and Liars: John Gibson: Iran Attacking Israel Is Really Attacking the U.S.

War on Iran Has Begun

U.S. vetoes U.N. condemnation of Israel

Full Israeli Invasion of Southern Lebanon?

"You Forget Yourself, Mr. Olmert"

The Neocons and Israel

Can't Wear Sharon's Shoes

Hezbollah, Israel and Palestine

Something Big Indeed


Sean-Paul Kelley July 16, 2006 - 8:20pm

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2006/07/war_without_end.html


Bite Your Head Off

Sean-Paul Kelley July 13, 2006 - 9:55pm

http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/004550.html



Bite Your Head Off

Sean-Paul Kelley July 13, 2006 - 9:56pm

In the meantime, Israel escalated its Gaza assault, dropping a quarter-ton bomb on a home before dawn in an attempt to assassinate top Hamas fugitives. The blast killed nine members of a Palestinian family — seven children and two parents — Palestinian hospital officials said. The head of the military wing of Hamas Mohammed Deif was wounded but escaped, Israel said.

From: Irish examinder

It killed 7 children and 2 parents.

Dave, information about the 1/4 ton bomb = 500 pound bomb? Isn’t 500 pounds a very large bomb to be dropping on a home? Wouldn’t something smaller destroy it? I seem to recall the bomb that was dropped on Zarqawi was also 500 pounds. There wasn’t a lot left of him or the house. I wouldn't think a Palestianian's home would be particularly robost. That could be an incorrect assumption on my part.

canuck July 13, 2006 - 11:01pm

...is the smallest currently fielded precision munition in the American arsenal (technically the USAF has a 250 lb bomb in the early stages of production, but the IAF doesn't to my knowledge have it). The weapons dropped on Zarqawi were indeed two 500 lb bombs (one a GBU-12 and the other a GBU-38 - both use the same Mk82 body i.e., the "bomb" bit is pretty much identical but one uses laser guidance and the other GPS). As to whether there was a lot left of him - me, I remember all the suspicious insta-expert blog commentary about how good the guy looked for having two bombs dropped on him. In terms of robustness, there likely wouldn't be a lot of difference between the two structures, at least systemically - both probably used pier and coin construction (load bearing pillars and beams filled in with non-load bearing walls) made of concrete and cinder block which is ubiquitous in the region, at least anywhere that I've ever been.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 5:45am

I am right, you are wrong!
After more than 40 years of being occupied, what do the Palestinians have to lose?
Israel is killing civilians to get the bad guys. But that is OK because Bush is supporting them.
Three Israeli soldiers are captured and the Israeli's are trying to get them.
How about the 1'500 women and children in Israeli jails, let alone the other thousands of people in Israeli jails because the Israeli's think that they are a threat?
Does this sound like another Gitmo situation?

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy July 13, 2006 - 11:18pm

Posted on Fri, Jul. 14, 2006
Hezbollah strike challenges U.S.

ANALYSIS:By taking Israeli hostages and firing rockets, the terrorist group undercuts U.S. Mideast policy.
BY BOB DEANS
COX NEWS SERVICE
WASHINGTON - Israel's two-front conflict in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip has challenged the Bush administration's hopes for democratic gains in the region and spotlighted Syria and Iran as patrons of the Hezbollah guerrillas.

The renewed violence also has dimmed the prospects for a near-term Israeli-Arab peace accord, as the regional diplomatic focus shifts to efforts to try to prevent Thursday's escalating violence from boiling over into all-out war.

And the rockets that Islamic militants fired at Israel on Thursday also were a kind of proxy shot at the United States, analysts said, at a time when the grinding war in Iraq and the stalemate over Iran's nuclear program have undercut American clout in the region.

As events continued to unfold late Thursday, the early loser appeared to be the moderate Lebanese government, elected just 13 months ago amid celebrations and hopes for a democratic revolution on the streets of Beirut.

By Thursday, President Bush was publicly worried about the future of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Bush's own stake in promoting a U.S. Middle East policy calling for greater democracy.

"Democracy in Lebanon is an important part of laying a foundation for peace in that region," Bush told reporters traveling with him in Germany.

"America was counting on Lebanon as a cornerstone for its forward policy in the Middle East -- democracy and winning allies to the U.S. side," said Joshua Landis, assistant professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Oklahoma. "This is a big blow."

Critics of Israel and the Bush administration blamed Israel for the escalating violence. They claim Prime Minister Ehud Olmert -- after just four months on the job -- overreacted to the June 25 capture of an Israeli soldier by Palestinian militants in Gaza, and then did the same by shelling Lebanon in response to the killing of eight Israeli troops and the capture of two more near southern Lebanon on Wednesday.

U.N. and U.S. diplomats were headed to the region Thursday in an effort to stem the violence.

But the events of the past two days demonstrated that the Lebanese government remains weak and Hezbollah appears to be the major political and military force in the country.

Since Israeli withdrew its forces from southern Lebanon in 2000, after an 18-year occupation that began during Lebanon's civil war, Hezbollah had restrained itself from conducting cross-border attacks.

Its brazen assault Wednesday on an Israeli convoy inside Israel, and the subsequent hostage-taking, presented a dangerous escalation and had analysts wondering whether Iran and Syria had given the green light.

"No government with any kind of capability anywhere in the world is going to sit tight and allow itself to be attacked across its borders on its own territory," said Robert Lieber, professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University. "It's not surprising that Israel would respond with considerable force and determination."

In striking Israel with a well-planned attack, Hezbollah and its patrons also are challenging Israel's closest ally, the United States, when it is struggling with the three-year-old war in Iraq and seeking to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions.

"We're seeing the tables turn on U.S. might, and the decline in U.S. moral and military authority in the region is reverberating out of Iraq," Landis said. "This has emboldened America's enemies in the region."

As Bush prepares to huddle with his counterparts from the so-called Group of Eight wealthy democratic nations -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Russia -- this weekend in St. Petersburg, Russia, he's been unable to win support for tough sanctions against Iran over its alleged efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.

Bush also has worked to ostracize Syria over its alleged role in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut in early 2005. Damascus has bristled at U.S. economic sanctions and efforts to isolate Syria diplomatically.

Syria and Iran, Lieber said, appear to be using Hezbollah to try to undercut two of the Bush administration's Middle East objectives: establishing democratically-elected governments in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories; and working toward a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

"The problem ultimately is radical Islamism, both in the form of nonstate terrorist actors like Hamas and Hezbollah and al-Qaeda," Lieber said.

"But it's amplified by the fact that Hamas and Hezbollah have state backing from Syria and Iran," he said. "So the blow to stability, the blow to peace, the blow to democratization and so forth is being inflicted by Iran and Syria and these particular groups, who do not want the kinds of things that the West and the Bush administration want."

link

Tina July 14, 2006 - 4:20am

"Syria and Iran, Lieber said, appear to be using Hezbollah to try to undercut two of the Bush administration's Middle East objectives: establishing democratically-elected governments in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories; and working toward a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

Be nice if they weren't living in never-never land.

Establishing democratically elected government in Palestine is clearly not what the Bush administration has been trying to do. Would that they were.

And this sort of trash is published as analysis by a news service.

Ian Welsh July 14, 2006 - 4:25am

Don't you realize everything is all about the US? ;)

Tina July 14, 2006 - 4:28am

The puppeteer pulling the strings is Iran whose hegemonic, regional aspirations grow clearer by the day. What has broken out is a war that has every liklihood of becoming a regional theater of war invoving Lebanon, Syria and Iran.

The only way to stop the fire burning in Lebabnon and Gaza is to cut off the source of the fuel in Iran. An attack on Iran is but a question of time since any strategy which fails to hold the patrons of the Hamas/Hezbollah axis accountable is doomed to fail.

Richard F. Kessler

lch@erols.com July 15, 2006 - 1:54pm

... I'm sure there are those in the Middle East saying

"the only way to stop the fire burning in Lebanon and Gaza is to cut off the source of the fuel in America. An attack on American troops and oil supply is but a question of time, since any strategy which fails to hold the patron of Israel accountable is doomed to fail."

Ian Welsh July 15, 2006 - 2:00pm

I'm working through Gerges' The Far Enemy right now which is, in fact, all about this (i.e., the US is the Far Enemy).

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 15, 2006 - 2:19pm

It's bin Laden's basic thesis. Despite the demonization in the West of the man, he's not stupid and his thesis is essentially correct. Various indiginous resistance groups have their chances of success reduced extremely if they can't get the US to stop backing their enemies. This is as true for Palestinians and Hezbollah v. Israel as it is for the islamic resistance to Mubarrak in Egypt.

If I were one of these people, and believed what they did, I would do everything I could to cause pain to the US, not just to its proxy forces. Everything.

Ian Welsh July 15, 2006 - 2:43pm

...as near as I can see are that a) it's technically harder to do, and b) for some reason a majority of Islamist extremists subscribe to focussing their offensive on the near enemy. Dunno why they hold that view so dogmatically, but they sure seem to - thank god.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 16, 2006 - 9:37am

Most of them believe that you fight the local enemy first. Bin Laden was trying to change that thinking, but he's lost a fair bit of power.

Ian Welsh July 16, 2006 - 3:16pm

How about 'Isreal/US axis'

Carib

Caribdude July 15, 2006 - 11:49pm

If you cut off Iranian/Syrian funding from Hezbollah, Hezbollah would likely atrophy greatly.

If you cut off American funding from Israel, Israel wont shrivel up and die.

Mad Dog

MadDog July 16, 2006 - 4:08pm

Israel kills one Palestinian, bombs Hamas offices
14 Jul 2006 08:40:05 GMT

By Nidal al-Mughrabi

GAZA, July 14 (Reuters) - Israel bombed the offices of Hamas lawmakers, destroyed a bridge and fired a tank shell that killed one Palestinian on Friday as part of a Gaza Strip offensive aimed at forcing militants to release a captured soldier.

Israeli forces withdrew overnight from central Gaza after two days of fighting, and an army statement said the troops had "currently completed their activities in the area".

The Gaza Strip is ringed by Israeli tanks and troops. A contingent remains in the southern tip of Gaza, which troops entered on June 28 to try to force militants to free Corporal Gilad Shalit and to halt their cross-border rocket fire.

Israel has killed more than 80 Palestinians as part of the offensive.

Before withdrawing from central Gaza, Israeli troops fired a tank shell at a vehicle, killing one Palestinian and wounding another, Palestinian medics said.

Palestinian security sources said the men were driving on the main road in the territory when they came across Israeli tanks and troops, who had swept into central Gaza on Wednesday.

The Israeli army said troops shot in the air as the vehicle approached, then fired a tank shell. Palestinian security sources said the vehicle was reversing away from the tank when it came under fire.

Palestinian witnesses said Israeli bulldozers overnight destroyed a large segment of the main central road and ripped down telephone and power lines.

"It's like an earthquake hit the road," Khamis Othman said while riding on a donkey cart with his son.

Stepping up attacks on the Hamas-led Palestinian government, an Israeli helicopter fired a missile into the north Gaza offices of several Hamas lawmakers, including Mushir al-Masri.

Masri has been outspoken in demanding that Israel release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit, who was captured in a cross-border raid on June 25.

Masri also hailed an attack on Israel's northern border with Lebanon in which Hizbollah guerrillas captured two soldiers.

BIT MORE

Tina July 14, 2006 - 4:50am

Almost 60 killed in two days of fighting
UN Security Council will meet today

Jul. 14, 2006
MITCH POTTER
MIDDLE EAST BUREAU

JERUSALEM—Shrugging off the worst enemy missile attacks in decades, Israeli leaders last night vowed to "break Hezbollah" with a massive and sustained air campaign.

The pledge of all-out war against the Lebanese militant Shiite Muslim movement capped a day that saw the Israeli military lay siege to its northern neighbour, crippling Beirut's airport with air strikes, imposing a naval blockade and bombing the main highway to the Syrian capital of Damascus.

Hezbollah militants launched more than 120 Katyusha rockets in response, terrifying a dozen northern Israeli communities and landing at least two rockets on the port city of Haifa, the deepest strikes ever into Israeli territory.

Israeli Defence Minister Amir Peretz called the attack on Haifa a violation of a psychological red line in its sudden war with Hezbollah, which was sparked Wednesday morning by the capture of two Israeli soldiers on a routine border patrol.

"We expected that Hezbollah would break the rules and now we are going to break them," Peretz told the Hebrew daily Yedioth Ahronoth, urging Israeli civilians to remain steadfast in the coming days. "We have no intention of concluding this event with Hezbollah faring as well as it began a few days ago."

Israel's army chief Brig. Gen. Dan Halutz warned "nothing is safe" in Lebanon and said Beirut itself — particularly Hezbollah offices and residences — would be a target.

A predawn strike on Hezbollah's southern Beirut stronghold this morning killed at least two people and wounded 17, according to Al-Manar Television, the Hezbollah-controlled station which was itself targeted by Israeli warplanes yesterday.

Hezbollah officials denied responsibility for firing on Haifa, a densely populated industrial hub of 270,000 people on the Mediterranean coast.

But the obvious escalation raised concerns that Hezbollah's Syrian and Iranian sponsors could eventually be drawn into the spiralling conflict. World oil prices shot up to a record $76 (U.S.) a barrel even as the Israeli shekel dropped. Israeli diplomats later emphasized the fears of a broader regional conflict, citing undisclosed evidence that Hezbollah intends to transfer the Israeli prisoners to Iran. Syria and Iran, another Israeli diplomat said, are "playing with fire."

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad answered with a warning of his own, cautioning Israel it would meet with "fierce response" if it expands air strikes into neighbouring Syria, according to the Iranian state news agency.

The 15-nation UN Security Council plans to hold an emergency session today after Lebanon urged the council to adopt a resolution calling for a ceasefire and an end to Israeli attacks.

The toll in Lebanon stood today at at least 55 civilians killed, along with an unknown number of Hezbollah militants. Most casualties came during a second day of Israeli air strikes directed at militant installations.

Two Israelis died and more than 90 others were injured in the barrage of Katyushas, which sent many northern Israelis southward in search of refuge. The uneven body count prompted international calls for Israeli restraint, including cautions from the United States and European Union.

One Israeli official turned aside the EU's message of concern over the disproportionate use of force, telling Reuters he was "concerned about the EU's disproportionate use of one-sided language."

The immediate impact of the aerial war effectively crushed the vibrant summer tourist season on both sides of the border. Lebanon, still recovering from the aftermath of a 30-year occupation by Syrian armed forces, saw a steady exodus of travellers from oil-rich Arab states on the road to Damascus. Thousands of deep-pocketed visitors from the Gulf States customarily escape the heat of summer in the mountain resorts above Beirut.

Hotels and guest houses in Israel's lush Galilee also emptied as visitors moved south to escape the threat of Katyushas. Rockets fell in Carmiel and Safed and in the coastal town of Nahariya, where one Israeli woman was killed in her home and 29 people injured, including children.

Israeli warplanes flew more than 50 sorties yesterday, targeting the runways and fuel reserves of Beirut airport and the headquarters of Al-Manar.

The IDF later dropped leaflets in Arabic, warning residents of south Beirut to avoid buildings linked to Hezbollah, whose assets include a vast network of Islamic charities in addition to political offices and militant sites.

The air attacks continued early today with Israeli strikes on five separate points of the main highway linking Beirut to Damascus. Israeli planes hit a bridge in the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold, and the fuel stores of the Jiyyeh power plant south of the city, witnesses and security sources said. The Lebanese Army responded with anti-aircraft fire.

Al-Manar remained on the air after the strike. The station later broadcast a report describing Hezbollah's Raad 1 missile as capable of hitting "military strongholds of the Zionist enemy." The rocket, with a 100-kg warhead, has a range sufficient to reach as many as 2 million Israelis, or a third of the country, the report said.

Hezbollah issued a midday statement warning, "The Islamic resistance will bombard Haifa as soon as the Israeli aggression reaches Beirut or the southern suburbs."

The violence in the north overshadowed the ongoing crisis in the Gaza Strip, where Israel Defence Forces are now in the third week of a ground campaign aimed at staunching Qassam rockets and securing the release of captured Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

More than 80 Palestinians have died during the operation, including a civilian family of eight killed on Wednesday in a failed Israeli air strike targeting the leader of the Hamas militant wing, Mohammed Deif.

The aggressive Israeli response to Wednesday's Hezbollah raid is consistent with its military reaction to the capture of Shalit in a June 25 raid on a remote IDF observation post by three Palestinian militant groups, including the militant wing of the ruling Hamas party.

Israel places an extraordinary premium on the recovery of soldiers lost in conflict, a national credo Hezbollah has exploited in the past, including the trade two years ago of one kidnapped Israeli businessman and the bodies of three soldiers for 400-plus Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners. But the onslaught of Hezbollah missiles so deep into Israeli territory appears to have sparked a new belligerence among Israelis, who are no longer prepared to tolerate a hostile militia that stands as the effective law of the land in southern Lebanon.

That mood was crystallized yesterday by hawkish former Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who chided Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for allowing Hezbollah to erode the nation's deterrence.

"On this difficult day we must remember the basic facts: Israel is a strong country. The people of Israel are a strong people. The IDF is a strong army. The Israel government's policy is the weak link," Netanyahu wrote in the Hebrew daily Ma'ariv. "The time has come to change directions.

Toronto Star

canuck July 14, 2006 - 4:54am

Israeli diplomats later emphasized the fears of a broader regional conflict, citing undisclosed evidence that Hezbollah intends to transfer the Israeli prisoners to Iran. Syria and Iran, another Israeli diplomat said, are "playing with fire."

[emphasis added]

One of the major things that Iran learned with their 80's foray into proxy-based hostage taking was not to take the hostages into Iran... why would they be doing this now? Odd.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 5:59am

there is alot of strangeness going on. I think everyone is trying to jockey for position and spin it for their own advantage. I love FOX yesterday - saying Iran fired the missiles into Haifa. Hell some places were saying the captured soldiers were going to be sent to Iraq.

Tina July 14, 2006 - 7:52am

Hezbollah officials denied responsibility for firing on Haifa, a densely populated industrial hub of 270,000 people on the Mediterranean coast.

This is being widely reported elsewhere. I wonder if we don't have yet another set of players running about. Given the al-Q track record of using Katushas of late, I have my suspicions. It'd be consistent with their stated grand strategy - pouring even more fuel on the fire to provoke the fighting around the margins of Israel that they've been speaking of.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 6:05am

That is all I saw here.

Does Hezbollah have amazing C3 or even discipline among its rocket groups? I doubt their training is so great.

Was there an order to attack Haifa? Probably not. But would any overly zealous and warlike rocketeer think they might be being heroic and patriotic by striking as far and as hard as they can? Indubitably.

The al-Qaeda idea strikes me as particularly weird. Either you are saying the group moved the missiles in and fired them within a couple days, or they had pre-positioned themselves in co-ordination with the kidnapping a few days ago.

JoshNarins July 14, 2006 - 7:36am

You might also want to re-think the "logic" your emotive attack is founded on. You're going to have to explain how my admittedly very speculative pondering, which is one of the few notions out there that doesn't have an adherent to an Iranian proxy launching these attacks, constitutes "Iran bashing".

As to the plausibility of al-Qa`eda being out there, I admit it's deeply speculative - that said, there's a trend towards overlapping loyalties and I see stuff poking up here and there in accounts that tells me that some folks (not many, but some) have been shifting their loyalties.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 8:14am

I discussed unit discipline amongst Hezbollah rocketeers. I discussed the difference between an order from Hezbollah and an enthusiastic member of a military. That is not an "emotive attack."

I think you were confused by what I said, so I'll try to clear that up. I thought the original article (not your work) insofar as it laid the blame for the kidnappings at Iran's door, was Iran bashing. No article I've read which blames Iran cites any evidence at all.

Was it al-Qaeda? I believe it is unlikely, because the timing and equipment were both far, far more likely to have been Hezbollan. A lot of the problems of the world are actually created by enthusiastic underlings. I think that is the most likely situation here.

JoshNarins July 14, 2006 - 8:50am

...you level accusations of bias, such as "bashing" a particular nation, that you specify precisely who it is that's manifesting the bias, then. When the comment is in reply to a comment of mine, rather than the original article, and when every other element of the comment has to do with rocket attacks rather than the kidnapping, it's not unreasonable for any reader to infer that you're making a statement about my comment on the rocket attack.

As to the kidnapping, the article cites Israeli diplomats as the source for moving the captured soldiers to Iran. As I noted above, I'm skeptical about this as well - it simply doesn't fit with the quite well-established Iranian modus operandi.

As to whether it was al-Qa`eda, yes, absolutely it's unlikely. It is however one of the few things that I've seen that would rationally suggest why it is that we'd see a release of these weapons in this situation. Hizbollah is trying to de-escalate things as much as it can without losing popular support, given that they're worried about having their logistics in Southern Lebanon smashed - launching these specific weapons, of which they have only a few, which they view as strategic assets, and which they hold under the closest control (far closer than the dime a dozen Katyushas), doesn't fit that strategy. In that situation, I see three major possibilities - 1) control wasn't so close, as you've suggested, 2) Hizbollah really did launch the attack as a warning but is denying it, as I believe Stratfor has suggested, or 3) someone with other loyalties, which Hizbollah thought was loyal to them, using equipment that Hizbollah thought it controlled, is running about out there pursuing their own agenda, as I have speculated wildly. This last has the virtue of seeing everyone as completely rational actors, which is clearly my major bias. Typically I would agree that it's under-supervised underlings, but the strategic nature of these specific weapons makes me wonder.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 9:16am

I was trying to be concise. Since you weren't bashing Iran, I found myself surprised you thought I said I was. I saw how you could have only after you did.

JoshNarins July 14, 2006 - 10:22am

Please accept my apologies for being abrupt about it. Bias is something that I try fairly ruthlessly to crush in my interpretations (and people pay me in quite a different professional capacity based on their belief that I'm not biased on a range of issues), hence the abruptness.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 11:40am

Considering AQ seems to mostly be out of the picture in the area (as far as I have heard), I dont know if they are a good candidate for the rocket attacks. Hezbollah has taken responsibility for attacks in the past, so you would think they would be happy to announce the attack, but I dont know of any other major players that could operate in the area without Hezbollah knowing about or participating in it.

Maybe a Palestinian faction (Palestinian Islamic Jihad or some other small group ?) trying to escalate the situation away from Palestine ?

Mad Dog

MadDog July 15, 2006 - 2:06pm

...Lebanon over the past 18 months or so. It's unclear how much and what it means, but there's been a lot of talk about it in various circles.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 15, 2006 - 2:22pm

Islamic group bids to fill power vacuum
But risks underestimating Israeli resolve

Jul. 14, 2006
MITCH POTTER
MIDDLE EAST BUREAU

JERUSALEM—There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah chose precisely this moment to throw an already turbulent Middle East into cartwheels of even greater turmoil.

But for most observers, none stands larger than the militant Shiite Muslim movement's overarching quest to elevate itself as the pre-eminent defender of the pan-Arab realm.

Whatever secondary reasons may come into play — and there is no question that for Hezbollah's sponsors in Syria and Iran the new crisis presents a convenient diversion from the critical issues confronting them — Arab-Muslim pride is paramount.

Scan the Arab press response to Wednesday's cross-border abductions of two Israeli soldiers and you will soon get the idea. The London-based daily Al-Quds al-Arabi cast the Hezbollah raid as "Arab-Islamic solidarity in its brightest form." The Saudi-financed Al-Hayat hailed it the best imaginable answer to Israel's "brutal terrorism in Gaza," proclaiming Hezbollah's expertise in "deterring the Israeli insolence."

The Syrian propaganda sheet Al-Thawra poured praise on Israel's "humiliation" as a tonic for the bruised Arab soul.

With Iraq sliding powerlessly toward civil war and the Palestinian Gaza Strip a mess as never before, Hezbollah seized a moment where intent, opportunity and impact blended for maximum synchronicity.

"Put the Hezbollah attacks in the context of history: Gamal Abdul Nasser the great Arab nationalist is gone, (Iraq's) Saddam Hussein is crushed, (Libya's) Moammar Gadhafi is domesticated and (the late Palestinian leader) Yasser Arafat was quarantined," said Dan Schueftan, a senior fellow at the Shalem Centre, a Jerusalem-based research centre. "Everyone is gone. So by acting now, Hezbollah is exploiting that vacuum to establish itself, at the service of Iran, as the last hope for radicals in the Middle East."

There is a huge gamble involved in Hezbollah's play — the bet that sooner or later Israel will submit to its ransom demands, as it has done in the past, and leave the group's Beirut-based leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah as the saviour of Arab dignity.

But the bellicose mood gathering momentum throughout Israel suggests that this time Hezbollah's bet is sorely misplaced.

"This is not arm-wresting or a test of false machismo. It is a fateful battle: a victory over Israel, even the symbolic-propaganda type ... will release demons across the entire Middle East," commentator Sever Plotzker wrote yesterday on the front page of Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest-circulation daily.

-----

Hezbollah and the Israeli’s are certifiably insane. The dogs of war have been been unleashed and they are foaming at the mouth, snarling and barking.

canuck July 14, 2006 - 5:05am

The Boxers (i.e. Rebellion) in China believed that their magic dances made them immune to bullets. If a Boxer was shot and killed, it was because their will/faith wasn't strong enough. I'm still waiting for GW Bush to show how will can conquer swimming in 50 degree Fahrenheit water for an hour. Bush has repeatedly talked about the triumph of the will, and how those who want out of Iraq have had their will shaken (not stirred).

JoshNarins July 14, 2006 - 8:54am

Bear in mind when you are mocking that Pat Robertson can leg-press 2000 lbs.

Remember, anything is possible if you have faith and resolve and are a liar.

Escher Sketch July 14, 2006 - 11:03am

Associated Press

UNITED NATIONS — The United States blocked an Arab-backed resolution Thursday that would have demanded Israel halt its military offensive in the Gaza Strip, the first UN Security Council veto in nearly two years.

The draft, sponsored by Qatar on behalf of other Arab countries, accused Israel of a “disproportionate use of force” that endangered Palestinian civilians, and demanded Israel withdraw its troops from Gaza.

The United States was alone in voting against the resolution. Ten of the 15 Security Council countries voted in favour, while Britain, Denmark, Peru and Slovakia abstained.

The United States. has periodically used its veto to block resolutions critical of Israel. The last council veto, in October 2004, was cast when the United States blocked a resolution condemning another Israeli operation in Gaza.

The draft was reworked repeatedly to address concerns that it was too biased against Israel. Language was added calling for the release of an abducted soldier and urging the Palestinians to stop firing rockets at Israel.

Nonetheless, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said it was still unacceptable because it had been overtaken by events in the region — including the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah militants on Wednesday — and was “unbalanced.”

“It placed demands on one side in the Middle East conflict but not the other,” Mr. Bolton said. “This draft resolution would have exacerbated tensions in the region.”

Israel launched the operation two weeks ago in response to the June 25 capture of an Israeli soldier, 19-year-old Cpl. Gilad Shalit.

The resolution called on Israel and the Palestinians to “take immediate steps to create the necessary condition for the resumption of negotiation and restarting the peace process.” It urged all parties to help alleviate the “dire humanitarian situation” faced by Palestinians.

The United States sought a text that said the Israeli actions were in direct response to rocket attacks against Israel and Mr. Shalit's capture.

Mr. Bolton said the United States remains “gravely concerned” at the escalation of the conflict and believes the best way to calm the situation is for Hamas to release Mr. Shalit.

The draft also demanded Israel release the Palestinian officials it has arrested.

The Palestinian observer to the UN, Riyad Mansour, said he was disappointed with the council's “continued inability to act while innocent Palestinian civilians continue to be brutally killed by the Israeli occupying forces.”

Referring to past U.S. practice of vetoing similar resolutions, Mr. Mansour said the council is failing the Palestinians. In Gaza, the Palestinian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Taher al-Nunu, said the United States must bear some responsibility for Israel's attacks.

“The veto is a political cover for the crimes of the occupation, and regrettably, instead of putting war criminals of this government that lost its mind on trial, they are giving a political cover to carry out more of these crimes,” Mr. al-Nunu said.

In a speech to the council immediately following Mr. Mansour, Israel's UN Ambassador Dan Gillerman thanked the U.S. for its “bold stand.” He defended Israel's actions and put the blame for attacks against Israel squarely on Iran and Syria.

“What we are seeing are the actions of Hamas and Hezbollah, but they are merely the fingers of the bloodstained hands and the executioners of the twisted minds of the leaders of the world's most ominous axis of terror, Syria and Iran,” he said.

Eight of the last nine vetoes in the council have been cast by the United States. Of those, seven concerned the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Globe and Mail

-----

"Nothing to see here folks, move on!"

canuck July 14, 2006 - 5:10am

After this they don't have any credibility in the area. From now on their goal in the area will be surviving.

-- Happy fishing in ocean of noise!

Gandalf July 16, 2006 - 3:36pm

Jul. 14, 2006 4:26 | Updated Jul. 14, 2006 4:59
Saudi Arabia criticizes Hizbullah
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia

In a significant move, Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's political heavyweight and economic powerhouse, accused Hizbullah guerrillas - without naming them - of "uncalculated adventures" that could precipitate a new Middle East crisis.

A Saudi official quoted by the state Saudi Press Agency said the Lebanese Hizbullah's brazen capture of two Israeli soldiers was not legitimate.

The kingdom "clearly announces that there has to be a differentiation between legitimate resistance (to Israel) and uncalculated adventures."

The Saudi official said Hizbullah's actions could lead to "an extremely serious situation which could subject all Arab nations and its achievements to destruction."

"The kingdom sees that it is time for those elements to alone shoulder the full responsibility for this irresponsible behavior and that the burden of ending the crisis falls on them alone."

Saudi Arabia's comments on the crisis came after most moderate Arab governments reacted with relative restraint to Israel's offensive in Lebanon, condemning attacks on civilians and infrastructure but also implicitly criticizing Hizbullah.

Pailo July 14, 2006 - 7:55am

LOL, isn't it special that Bolton is concerned how the UN looks

Israel pulls out of central Gaza

Israeli troops have withdrawn from central Gaza after the army said it had "completed" a two-day mission there.

Forces remain in other parts of the Gaza Strip, and are continuing a separate offensive against Lebanon.

There was fresh violence overnight as the troops withdrew from central Gaza. Sixteen Palestinians, mainly militants, died there in the two-day operation.

On Thursday, the United States vetoed a UN resolution calling on Israel to halt its military operations in Gaza.

Washington's UN ambassador, John Bolton, said the resolution laid disproportionate blame on Israel for the current crisis.

"Passage would have undermined the credibility of the Security Council, which itself must be seen by both sides as an honest broker in the Middle East conflict," he said.

Ten Security Council members voted in favour of Qatar's motion, while four abstained.

more

Tina July 14, 2006 - 8:00am

http://www.juancole.com/2006/07/is-arab-spring-turning-to-dust-under.html

[snip]

Hizbullah got off dozens of katyusha missiles in reply, which they would not have been able to do if the Israeli airforce had been hitting katyusha missile emplacements in the deep south instead of attacking the whole Lebanese economy up at Beirut. The missiles killed two Israeli civilians. One was said to hit the outskirts of Haifa, but Hizbullah denies that one and ordinary katyushas do not have that kind of range. Hizbullah's attacks on Israel during the past two days have been despicable.
.
As the Saudis pointed out, Hizbullah's latest actions are a form of ill-conceived adventurism that has plunged the region into greater crisis. On the other side, Condi Rice called on the Israelis to exercise restraint in their response in Lebanon. Given the power of the Israel Lobby in Washington, this statement is about as close as you would get nowadays to a denunciation of disproportionate Israeli attacks on the whole Lebanese people for the actions of a handful of Shiite guerrillas in the far south of the country.
.
Yes, I am saying that Wahhabi Saudi Arabia and the Bush administration Secretary of State are the adults in all this.

[snip]

Tina July 14, 2006 - 8:31am

One point to make about this incursion, the current government in Israel is fairly untested. They don't have Sharon's possibly dodgy but unquestionable military experience or even a military man in the position of secretary of defense. They come in as a centrist party after years of a right wing rule. Thus, they can mistakenly be thought to be softer than their predecessors and hence invite these kinds of responses from Hizballa and Hamas. But this is inherently flawed. First of all, it is a very standard tactic to use disproportionate force against the first perceived infraction. This is what teachers all over the world do the first week of classes to keep their students in line for the rest of the year, and obviously part of what Israel is doing. Second, even though his background is not military, Amir Peretz is not someone I would want to piss off, as the head of the Israeli labor union's he came across as vicious a pitbull as you can imagine. Also, in both cases, Hamas and Hizballa, the attacks against Israel came after a relatively extended period of calm (even though Israel has been thwarting terrorist attempts left and right of late), and there is no one more pissed off than someone whos calm has been shattered.

Pailo July 14, 2006 - 8:43am

Syria's ambassador to the US said Washington should restrain Israel, but Israel's Justice Minister, Haim Ramon, told Army Radio his country was following guidelines set by the US and Russia. "We will act in the same proportions that Russia is using against the Chechens and the US has used against [al-Qaeda leader Osama] bin Laden in Afghanistan."

Global outcry at bombing

Well I guess we can anticipate the coming deaths in the thousands....

Tina July 14, 2006 - 10:14am

Talk about a tin ear. I would guess there's a reason why he's not foreign minister...

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 14, 2006 - 10:28am

as Israel kowtowing to PA demands that they revert to 1967 borders and allow East Jerusalem to be the capital of Palestine.

"Round and round, round we go." - Tupac

Samsara July 14, 2006 - 1:08pm

Published: Friday, 14 July, 2006, 12:58 PM Doha Time

BEIRUT: Syria is holding Lebanon hostage by giving orders to the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah which has captured two Israeli soldiers, a leading Lebanese minister said yesterday.

Syrian Vice-President “Faruq Shara gives the orders, Hezbollah executes them and Lebanon is the hostage,” said Communication Minister Marwan Hamadeh.

Shara said Israel’s occupation of Arab land lay at the root of escalation in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Israel, in turn, has accused Syria and its key regional ally Iran - the main backers of Hezbollah - for sparking the unrest.

While Israel warned that no target in Lebanon was immune, other anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon, including Druze chief and prominent MP Walid Jumblatt, said Lebanon should not be held responsible for the actions of Hezbollah.

“Where is the decision-making of Hezbollah?” asked Jumblatt. “If it is Lebanese, we respect it, but it has to be part of the Lebanese state.

“But if there is an Syrian-Iranian axe at the expense of Lebanon, then Lebanon will be caught in the middle, facing an unjustified Israeli savage aggression,” he told LBCI television.

Earlier, he told state Tele-Liban station that the Lebanese government could not be held “responsible for an action that it had not been consulted about before” it was taken.

“The Israeli aggression against Lebanon is unjustified, and can only bring destruction... If Israel thinks that this is how the soldiers will be returned, it is mistaken,” he said.

Former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel said that “it is inconceivable that Hezbollah takes decisions in the name of Lebanon, and which throw the country in war,” without consulting the government in which it participates, he said.

“These are unilateral initiatives which have dangerous consequences” on the country’s population and economy, he said. – AFP

Pailo July 14, 2006 - 1:44pm

Jul. 14, 2006
ASSOCIATED PRESS

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Israel tightened its seal on Lebanon, blasting its air and road links to the outside world and bringing its offensive to the capital for the first time today to punish Hezbollah — and with it, the country — for the capture of two Israeli soldiers.

Warplanes again smashed runways at Beirut’s airport with hours of airstrikes, trying to render it unusable, and destroyed mountain bridges on the main highway to Syria. Warships blockaded Lebanon’s ports for a second day.

Smoke drifted over the capital after strikes exploded fuel tanks at one of Beirut’s two main power stations, gradually escalating the damage to Lebanon’s key infrastructure. Apartment buildings were shattered by strikes in south Beirut.

Hezbollah said the home and office of its leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, were destroyed by an Israeli airstrike but that he and his family were safe.

Lebanese guerrillas responded to earlier Israeli attacks by firing a barrage of at least 50 Katyusha rockets throughout the day, hitting more than a dozen communities across northern Israel.

The death toll in three days of fighting rose to 73 killed in Lebanon — almost all civilians, including five killed in strikes today — and 12 in Israel, including a mother and daughter killed in a rocket attack. The violence sent shock waves through a region already traumatized by the ongoing battles in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas.

Israel’s strikes on the airport and roads and naval blockade all but cut off Lebanon from the world, while hits on infrastructure aimed to exact a price from its government for allowing Hezbollah to operate freely in the south.

more at the Toronto Star

-----

In other news today the Globe and Mail published Prime Minister Harper's comments, “its (Israel's) response to the kidnappings as "measured."

The Globe appears to have moved Harper's statement off their front page. The Star didn’t publish it or perhaps they buried it. It’s looking very grim at the UN if the United States will exercise its veto power to defeat motions that are made to reign Israel in. The carnage continues unabated. Will more countries be added to the flames that are engulfing the Middle East? Newspaper editors are making judgements as to what is responsibile journalism connected with happenings in the Middle East. It is MPO the news you read and see will most likely be consistent with 'judgements' you make as to your interpretation of what is 'responsible'.

canuck July 14, 2006 - 3:44pm

Hizbollah rockets hit Sea of Galilee town
15 Jul 2006 20:07:25 GMT
Source: Reuters
Printable view | Email this article | RSS [-] Text [+]

(Adds Israel orders special measures for rocket-hit north)

By Allyn Fisher-Ilan

JERUSALEM, July 15 (Reuters) - Rockets fired by Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon struck deeper into Israel than ever before on Saturday, hitting the Sea of Galilee town of Tiberias, and wounding 15 people across northern Israel.

It was the fourth straight day of rocket barrages since fighting erupted after two soldiers were captured on a raid into Israel by Hizbollah militants, who also killed eight Israeli troops in ensuing clashes.

Four Israelis, including a five-year-old child, have been killed and 300 hurt by about 700 rockets fired since Wednesday at an unprecedented number of more than 20 towns. Over 100 Lebanese, mostly civilians, have died in Israeli air raids.

The Hizbollah rocket barrages have sparked widespread panic that has sent thousands of Israelis fleeing the north and many others heading for bomb shelters.

Israeli officials said three barrages of Katyusha rockets slammed into Tiberias, a town about 35 km (22 miles) from the border with Lebanon, injuring eight people and damaging two residential buildings.

"We could not believe this would happen to us. It was very scary. We are frightened and intend to escape with our children," Ayala Aloni told Israel's Ynet news Web site after the first rocket hit.

In Karmiel, another Israeli town struck by rockets, the mayor urged residents to stay with relatives in the south of the country until the violence subsides. Several people were injured in an Israeli Arab town across the road from Karmiel on Friday.

Defence Minister Amir Peretz issued an order giving authorities the power to shut schools, factories and public institutions in the north, in a bid to limit rocket casualties.

The "Special Situation" declaration falls short of a full state of emergency.

Israeli generals urged the public to remain calm in the region where about 750,000 Israelis were under rocket threat, but cautioned it may be weeks until they subside.

"We have to be ready for some more days, perhaps more than that, perhaps weeks, to face this reality," the Israeli army's operations chief, General Gadi Eizenkot, told reporters in Tel Aviv. "We have to prepare for a continued campaign, not to panic."

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1552657.htm

Tina July 15, 2006 - 4:03pm

Report claims Syria may face offensive
Big News Network
Saturday 15th July, 2006 (UPI)

Israel has given Syria 72 hours to release two captured soldiers or face a possible offensive, Al-Hayat, the London-based Arabic newspaper, reported.

The report said a senior Pentagon source warned that should the Arab world and international community fail in the efforts to convince Syria to pressure Hezbollah into releasing the soldiers and halt the current escalation, Israel may attack targets in the country, YNETnews.com said.

Al-Hayat quoted a source as saying that the U.S. cannot rule out the possibility of an Israeli strike in Syria.

The report comes despite the Bush administration's public call for Israel to refrain from military actions that could harm civilians

Tina July 15, 2006 - 6:04pm

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.