Flambeee | Brooklyn | March 22
Over the past 18 months, the stock market has keyed off of oil to varying degrees in an almost obsessive manner. Early on during this period, equities tended to move inversely to the price of crude as investors feared that the rise in energy prices would hamper consumer spending as well as corporate margins. More recently though, equities have tended to move with the price of crude as energy related equities cycled into momentum beasts positively correlated with more classic momentum related issues as Google, Apple and other high beta names.
Speculators, who look for patterns and interrelationships are well aware of this obsession with energy and in fact have been, along with analysts and the business news media, a part of the crowd perpetuating it. Perhaps, the fact that a traditionally inverse indicator now runs with and indeed fosters the momentum crowd signals that the momentum cycle for energy has matured.
These cycles often endure for a few years and the energy complex has been steadily trending higher for better than 2 years now. As well, even hairdressers and dentists have become well aware that such relationships exist and appropriate their behaviors accordingly - which brings us to this morning’s thesis…
If the energy and energy related equities obsession has grown so evident even to those at the bottom of the investing food chain then, perhaps, the alpha inherent in monitoring such a relationship is decreasing. And if the alpha is decreasing then what will take its place?
There have been a number of periods during which the stock market was daily held hostage by even small fluctuations in interest rates. In fact, daily obsessive observation and speculation off of the relationship between yields and equities has been, at numerous times, the primary vocation across Wall Street.
However, during this same 18 month period that the relationship between energy and equities came to the fore, the rate/equity relationship and obsession took a back seat not only because the price of oil was truly so important but also because the rate environment continued to remain benign over a significant period of time. This has served to enhance rate complacency as well as to increase neglect in terms of utilizing rates as an equity market tell…
A few weeks back, as the yield on the Ten Year Treasury bond broke out of a trading range towards slightly higher levels, I began writing about the potential for the bond market to again become one of those indicators about which traders obsessed tick by tick. Last Thursday, I noted that a significant broader market short opportunity would be in the offing if rates broke higher before stocks broke down
Yesterday, after a five day bounce in treasuries, they got kneed in the package.
The stock market responded to this bond route in kind as it attempted to rally in the morning and then sold off sharply in the afternoon. For those keying off of yields, there was an excellent day trade in there, but more generally the action provided a window into the type of stock/bond interrelationship we may likely experience over the intermediate or even long term…
It is my belief that the market is again entering a cycle in which rates will matter more and more to the point in which analysts, speculators and media will begin to obsess over a multitude of rate related variables (much more than they do already and to a much broader audience) as well as smaller moves in rates over shorter periods of time…
In addition, and as I’ve also alluded to previously in this space, a rising rate environment after such a long period of economy friendly bond yields, could very well lead to the classic crisis testing for Ben Bernanke – the same one which has a habit of occurring soon after a new Federal Reserve Chairman takes his oath…
My apologies to you if you are a hairdresser or a dentist. No offense was intended… (well, maybe a little bit)