Morning Markets Brief 032206

Flambeee | Brooklyn | March 22

Over the past 18 months, the stock market has keyed off of oil to varying degrees in an almost obsessive manner. Early on during this period, equities tended to move inversely to the price of crude as investors feared that the rise in energy prices would hamper consumer spending as well as corporate margins. More recently though, equities have tended to move with the price of crude as energy related equities cycled into momentum beasts positively correlated with more classic momentum related issues as Google, Apple and other high beta names.

Speculators, who look for patterns and interrelationships are well aware of this obsession with energy and in fact have been, along with analysts and the business news media, a part of the crowd perpetuating it. Perhaps, the fact that a traditionally inverse indicator now runs with and indeed fosters the momentum crowd signals that the momentum cycle for energy has matured.

These cycles often endure for a few years and the energy complex has been steadily trending higher for better than 2 years now. As well, even hairdressers and dentists have become well aware that such relationships exist and appropriate their behaviors accordingly - which brings us to this morning’s thesis…

If the energy and energy related equities obsession has grown so evident even to those at the bottom of the investing food chain then, perhaps, the alpha inherent in monitoring such a relationship is decreasing. And if the alpha is decreasing then what will take its place?

There have been a number of periods during which the stock market was daily held hostage by even small fluctuations in interest rates. In fact, daily obsessive observation and speculation off of the relationship between yields and equities has been, at numerous times, the primary vocation across Wall Street.

However, during this same 18 month period that the relationship between energy and equities came to the fore, the rate/equity relationship and obsession took a back seat not only because the price of oil was truly so important but also because the rate environment continued to remain benign over a significant period of time. This has served to enhance rate complacency as well as to increase neglect in terms of utilizing rates as an equity market tell…

A few weeks back, as the yield on the Ten Year Treasury bond broke out of a trading range towards slightly higher levels, I began writing about the potential for the bond market to again become one of those indicators about which traders obsessed tick by tick. Last Thursday, I noted that a significant broader market short opportunity would be in the offing if rates broke higher before stocks broke down

Yesterday, after a five day bounce in treasuries, they got kneed in the package.

The stock market responded to this bond route in kind as it attempted to rally in the morning and then sold off sharply in the afternoon. For those keying off of yields, there was an excellent day trade in there, but more generally the action provided a window into the type of stock/bond interrelationship we may likely experience over the intermediate or even long term…

It is my belief that the market is again entering a cycle in which rates will matter more and more to the point in which analysts, speculators and media will begin to obsess over a multitude of rate related variables (much more than they do already and to a much broader audience) as well as smaller moves in rates over shorter periods of time…

In addition, and as I’ve also alluded to previously in this space, a rising rate environment after such a long period of economy friendly bond yields, could very well lead to the classic crisis testing for Ben Bernanke – the same one which has a habit of occurring soon after a new Federal Reserve Chairman takes his oath…

My apologies to you if you are a hairdresser or a dentist. No offense was intended… (well, maybe a little bit)


flambeee March 22, 2006 - 10:00am
( categories: News Guidance | Other )

Finnish SEC seems to be hinting that the outlook statements of Nokia and many other companies are insufficient. Nokia touted their TD-SCDMA readiness in China.

DAX +0.31%; Nokia -0.88%; RTS is up; EURUSD 1.2096 (unchanged).

Traders buy longs on UPM Kymmene (forestries) and Finnair (aircarrier). UPM Kymmene announced that they have successfully increased the price of newspaper paper. Finnair increases yet again routes to Asia.

Traders are less interested in their losing bets on DAX shorts than yesterday.

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

Gandalf March 22, 2006 - 11:08am

Your view of energy I'm not quite sure about. In the last three years you've had energy stocks move in tandem with the market and the tranports also moving to new highs. If markets are a reflection of earnings, one would have to conclude that generally there is plenty to go around for everybody. Certainly there are pockets of negative correlation where oils have moved inversely to the other sectors, but they haven't lasted very long.

I still see this market in a cyclical rally. The oils and commodities are just part of it. The story in the far east may be the new secular story, but it will only be seen to be so if it survives a significant rate rise.

I see all this as of a piece. To me the question is what changes it and where does the money go?

That is where the alpha will be. Maybe it's in shampoo.

mauberly March 22, 2006 - 12:35pm

imnsho rates become more important here to daily perception and noisier... the energy half of the equation i used to contrast with this which i believe is closer to the end of the cycle than the beginning...

flambeee March 22, 2006 - 4:16pm

I tend to stay out of the fray. Other than possibly the Far East, I don't see a grail out there that is holy which I'll lance my lot for. Throw one out and I'll look at it.

mauberly March 22, 2006 - 9:42pm

as this limits value at risk and maximizes the exploitation of specific catalysts... according to chaos theory, the further out into the future i go, the less capacity ive to predict... nonethelss, i do have three longer term investments one of which ive mentioned in the past few weeks...

flambeee March 22, 2006 - 11:09pm

Hmmph, the problem with Google Finance is that it offers no more content than others:

http://finance.google.com/finance?mfid=6269110 (hint: use the Search)

OK, it provides a bunch of links to other content providers.

I still think that Yahoo is the best because it provides historical quotes. They had a proper options analyzer too, but they have withdrawn it and replaced with a simple one.

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

Gandalf March 22, 2006 - 12:56pm

whether they are reputable or can anyone confirm this story? this would be first case of avian flu in americas i believe... thnx for any and all info...

http://www.radiolivre.org/node/2116

flambeee March 22, 2006 - 2:35pm

There are plenty of different kind of avian flus around.

I can't confirm the story. Google News doesn't know it and what the hell is 'Federal Veterinary Office" in Spanish? Without guessing that I can't check their website.

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

Gandalf March 22, 2006 - 5:36pm

switzerland called the federql veterinary office but in mexico only found one called the Food and Veterinary office (FVO)... strange indeed...

flambeee March 22, 2006 - 6:06pm

Flu H5N2 does not affect people and has been found in ducks in British Columbia. It is not very virulent to ducks and I'm sure migrating birds have carried it to Mexico and South America a long time ago. Not to worry.

All flus are bird flus. Ducks and geese are the reservoirs and give us the gifts that keep on giving.

Tonsure Wimple March 23, 2006 - 9:43pm

First Mexican bird flu case reported in Nogales
Enviado por Anônimo em Qua, 03/22/2006 - 17:53. Rádio Livre

Ciudad de Mexico - México confirmed today its first case of avian flu in a duck found dead in the heart of Nogales, near the US border.

Mexican officials said it was not yet clear if the wild bird, found on Monday, was infected with the H5N1 strain of the virus which can infect humans.

“We have a first case of bird flu. It’s H5,” Federal Veterinary Office spokeswoman Margarita Cruz said.

A sample has been sent to a European reference laboratory in Britain to test for the H5N1 strain and results are expected by the end of the week, she said.

The country this month ordered all poultry be kept indoors for an indefinite period to lessen the risk from the fast-spreading H5N1 virus that has killed millions of birds.

It remains difficult for humans to catch but the strain has killed more than 90 people worldwide since late 2003.

So far most human victims of the virus have had direct or indirect contact with infected birds but there are fears the virus will mutate into a strain easily passed among people, causing a pandemic in which millions could die.

Little human risk:

The Mexican Federal Veterinary Office said that in addition to the Nogales case.

Radio Libre

----

This appears to be coming from a Mexican radio station … But so what … lots of birds in Canada have flu—it’s just that they don’t have the strain that causes death. A link between bird flu and people hasn’t been established in North America.

canuck March 22, 2006 - 6:36pm

It is a Brazilian radio station (in Portuguese).

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

Gandalf March 23, 2006 - 4:22pm

From the Financial Times:

By Pan Kwan Yuk in New York

Published: March 22 2006 13:56 | Last updated: March 22 2006 21:43

A rapacious appetite for banking and pharmaceutical stocks helped Wall Street break out of its two-day slump on Wednesday, but gains on the Nasdaq were pared by weaknesses in technology stocks.

Industrial blue chips led the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher, with investors snapping up shares in heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar and Honeywell as fears about the impact of interest-rate increases on the economy subsided. Caterpillar rose 2.5 per cent to $76.21 and Honeywell gained 0.9 per cent to $42.66.

The gains took the Dow 0.7 per cent higher at 11,317.43, while the broader S&P 500, buoyed by gains in energy stock climbed 0.6 per cent to 1,305.04. The Nasdaq Composite turned around earlier losses to trade 0.4 per cent higher at 2,303.35.

Interest-rate sensitive stocks such as financials and homebuilders rose. Morgan Stanley, which topped analyst expectations with its 17 per cent increase in first-quarter profit, jumped 2.5 per cent to $61.94, while JPMorgan added 1.9 per cent to $41.99.

Pharmaceutical stocks also moved broadly higher after drugmaker Bristol-Myers Squibb settled a key patent dispute with Canadian generic drugmaker Apotex.

The deal, which would allow Bristol to retain patent protection on its blockbuster Plavix blood thinning treatment until 2011, prompted rating upgrades from UBS, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and JPMorgan.

Bristol shares shot up 10.6 per cent to $25.24, while Eli Lilly ended the session 2.1 per cent higher at $58.49.

Overall, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose 1.2 per cent to become the second-best performing industry group on the S&P.

By contrast, technology stocks were under pressure, with Microsoft sliding 2.1 per cent to $27.15 after it announced late on Tuesday that the finished consumer version of its Vista operating system would not be available until next year.

Although the latest hold-up represents only a small setback after two years of delays, the move dealt a potentially damaging blow to sales of PC makers during the crucial holiday shopping season.

Shares in Hewlett-Packard slid 0.5 per cent to $33.36 while Gateway slumped 2.8 per cent to $2.36. Apple Computer, which does not use the Windows operating system, also got caught in the the falling trend, easing 0.2 per cent to $61.67 after having risen by as much as 1.5 per cent earlier in the day.

Losses on the Nasdaq were pared by Chaparral Steel, which surged 16.5 per cent to $57.50 following a strong quarterly earnings report. The robust figures set off a buying spree on metal makers. US Steel jumped 4.4 per cent to $59.86 while Alcoa gained 0.8 per cent to $29.36.

On the earnings front, Nike and FedEx both exceeded analysts’ expectations with their earnings. Nike rose 2.2 per cent to $86.82 while FedEx gained 1.1 per cnet to $114.44.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c1a026c8-b9aa-11da-9d02-0000779e2340.html

cardinal March 22, 2006 - 7:45pm

From the Financial Times:

By Jennifer Hughes in New York and David Turner in Tokyo

Published: March 22 2006 17:31 | Last updated: March 22 2006 21:13

European and US government bonds were generally higher and yields lower on Wednesday, but the move could be attributed to local factors in each market.

US Treasuries appeared to be in curve flattening mode.

Trading volumes eased after a busy session on Tuesday as investors waited for news to provide fresh direction.

Shorter-dated yields rose ahead of next week’s expected interest rate rise. Longer-dated yields dropped further however on talk that momentum traders were putting on new curve flattening trades that involve buying the bonds.

By late trade in New York, yields on two-year notes were up 0.4 basis points at 4.747 per cent and 10-year yields were down 2bp at 4.705 per cent.

UK gilts suffered a turbulent Budget day. Ten- and 30-year paper first fell on news that the proportion of long-dated bonds would rise, but then rallied when the total issuance forecast was lower than expected.

James Knightley, economist at ING Financial Markets, said however that the more significant news might prove to have been the announcement that the dovish Stephen Nickell would be replaced in May by David Blanchflower on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee.

“Blanchflower specialises in labour markets, which could be of major significance in coming months given comments from other BoE officials stating that they remain concerned about spare capacity as well as wage pressures,” he added.

Ten-year yields peaked at 4.397 per cent but were at 4.304 per cent, down 3bp, late in London. Thirty-year yields dropped 4.9bp to 4.012 per cent, having reached 4.127 per cent earlier.

Eurozone bonds initially fell on hawkish comments from a member of the European Central Bank’s governing council.

But prices later rallied following a weak Belgian confidence indicator which some economists said could presage a soft sentiment report next week from the more influential German Ifo Institute.

The 10-year Bund yield was down 1.9bp at 3.646 per cent.

Japanese government bonds fell and yields reached new highs as expectations continued to grow for actual interest rate rises from the Bank of Japan this year.

Two-year yields rose 2.5bp to a fresh five-year closing high of 0.575 per cent but the 10-year lost 0.5bp to close at 1.725 per cent.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/54376a74-b9c8-11da-9d02-0000779e2340.html

cardinal March 22, 2006 - 7:50pm

I guess they are more radioactive instead.

Mexican official denies rumor of bird flu on border with U.S.

ASSOCIATED PRESS
11:27 a.m. March 23, 2006

MEXICO CITY – Mexico's Agriculture Department on Thursday denied rumors that a case of high-pathogenic avian flu had been found in a town on the U.S. border.
“Mexico is totally free of bird flu,” Jose Angel del Valle, the department's head of animal health, said in a telephone interview.

A supposed news item posted on the Web site radiolivre.org on Wednesday said there had been a case of H5 bird flu in a duck found dead in the town of Nogales, on the U.S. border.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said earlier Thursday that the report was a complete hoax, but the rumor affected Chicago Board of Trade grain prices overnight Wednesday.

Last year, Mexico reported several isolated cases of low-pathogenic bird flu, which doesn't affect humans. The most recent case was in the southern state of Chiapas, near the Guatemalan border.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/mexico/20060323-1127-mexico-birdflu.html

Tina March 23, 2006 - 9:50pm

candy. thnx!

flambeee March 25, 2006 - 7:30am

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.