...ascribing it to a widespread belief that no matter what they do the government will do as it pleases. It'd make a good deal of sense to me were Shrub's numbers good, but they appear to be in terminal freefall and there's a good deal of political opportunity there.

Frankly, I think things have stabilized such that Iraq's just another story - a section in the newspaper that many have opinions on, but is widely viewed as something that happens to "other people". Another reflection of the age old gap between attitude/opinion/belief and actual behaviour, MNSHO. This is why the polls that I am involved with try to get at behaviour - I tend to think even a loose behaviour-based proxy is worth more than an exquisitely focussed and balanced measure of opinion.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

i will do my serve and attempt to be fair despite my perturbations and pervasive anti-establishment biases…

Just don't insult the judge much.

And Happy Equinox! (*) Tomorrow my nordic day will be longer than yours!

DAX has been up about 0.5% all the day. EURUSD 1.2168 about unchanged. It should be now in the upper range of its trading channel. If ECB signals that interest rates will rise and Fed signals that interest rates won't rise after March, the slight rising trend of EURUSD should be confirmed.

Norwegian Odin mutual funds sent me their brochure telling how well they have done and hinting that now it is time to buy (on top?). Why didn't they send their brochure before their mutual funds started their rise?

Traders are still interested in Nokia longs. DAX shorts lead 3:1 longs, even if the volume of neither is spectacular.

(*) Due to astronomical reasons, American equinox might be a day later than European equinox, I haven't checked.

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

at 1:26 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, Vernal Equinox

If you don’t have your 2006 Spring Seed Catalogue, better go online and order one today:

Nicest thing about Winter is planning for the arrival of Spring. This will be my second year using the square foot gardening method. It isn't possible to be a pessimist or a cynic when you plant things. So many things to look forward to with fruits and vegetables, in raised beds mixed with great-looking flowers.

World problems recede from view when you're getting your hands dirty. Newspapers can be used for mulch, or if you're really clever, use them for seed containers.

U.S. Economy: Leading Index Falls for First Time in Five Months

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- An index of U.S. leading indicators fell in February after four months of gains, signaling slower economic growth in the second half of the year.

The New York-based Conference Board said today its index fell 0.2 percent, after a revised 0.5 percent gain in January. The index points to economic activity in three to six months.

The pace of economic growth is forecast to slow later this year as higher interest rates cool the housing market and make it more expensive for consumers to borrow. Fewer building permits and a decline in consumer expectations led the decline in the leading index.

``After a very strong first quarter, the index is pointing to moderation in growth,'' said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York. ``It's clear that housing is slowing down, given the high prices and rising interest rates.''

suggest that the citizens do not matter. (this is part of the reason, btw, why voter turn out in the u.s. is always so punk…).

Emissions poll

The side text quote of the poll claims that only 17% of Americans accept the environmental policy of Republicans, but to me it seems that neither party is interested in the opinions of 83% of Americans. Are both parties financed by the worst polluting industries?

That's why I posted the poll - I want to see if that claimed 83% figure is about right. I acidified the question threatening that 'it could cost' to see what folks really think. Those Americans who think that greenhouse gases are nonissue, please click 'No'.

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

From the Financial Times

By Peter Garnham

Published: March 20 2006 13:49 | Last updated: March 20 2006 21:20

Shares on Wall Street paused for breath on Monday following last week’s strong run and as investors kept their powder dry ahead of a keynote speech from Ben Bernanke, federal Reserve chairman.

Investors were looking to Mr Bernanke to offer clues to the future of US interest rate policy in an address at the Economic Club of New York after the market close.

“It’s all about Bernanke,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst at SW Bach. “If he elaborates on the decline in the housing market, we could see the Fed surprise the market by stopping the current rate hiking cycle sooner than expected and set the stage for another equity bull run.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.1 per cent to 11,274.53. However, the Nasdaq Composite Index put on 0.3 per cent to 2,314.11, while the S&P 500, which last week hit its highest level since May 2001, slipped 0.2 per cent to 1,305.08.

Technology stocks rallied ahead of Oracle’s earnings results, due after the close. Shares in the software maker rose 0.9 per cent to $13.72, while rival Adobe, which is scheduled to report its figures on Wednesday, gained 1.6 per cent to $36.55.

The Nasdaq was also supported by Dell Computer’s 2.3 per cent advance. Shares in the computer maker climbed to $29.76 after it said it would double its workforce in India to 20,000 over the next three years.

Other sector movers included Microsoft, up 1.4 per cent at $27.89, and Google, 2.5 per cent higher at $348.19.

Shares in Wal-Mart hit their highest level this year, rising 2.3 per cent to $47.76 amid reports that the world’s largest retailer was set to announce a large expansion of its Chinese operations. A Wal-Mart executive said the company could hire 150,000 people in China over the next five years and open 20 stores in the country in 2006.

Drugmaker Schering-Plough gained 4.6 per cent to $19.33 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from “underperform” to “inline” citing earnings leverage from the company’s cholesterol drug Vytorin.

Boeing edged 0.4 per cent higher to $78.18 after Prudential raised its price target on the company’s shares to $83. The broker said the new price estimate was based on higher than expected 777 aircraft deliveries

Shares in Michael Stores rose 12.9 per cent to $38.35 after the largest arts and crafts retailer in the US said it was exploring strategic options, which might include putting itself up for sale.

Bid hopes also boosted St Paul Travelers, up 0.8 per cent to $41.90, despite a denial from the insurer that it was in merger talks with Switzerland’s Zurich Financial Services.

Sirius Satellite Radio rose 4.5 per cent to $5.11 after the US radio service said it had signed up 4m customers and forecast more than 6m by the end of this year.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/48525b46-b816-11da-bfc5-0000779e2340.html

From the Financial Times:

By Richard Beales in New York, Joanna Chung in London and David Turner in Tokyo

Published: March 20 2006 13:00 | Last updated: March 20 2006 21:15

US Treasuries rose and yields fell on Monday as traders awaited remarks from the Federal Reserve chairman that could shed light on the central bank’s next interest rate moves.

Ben Bernanke was due to speak to the Economic Club of New York after the end of the trading day. Observers were hoping for hints of the Fed’s thinking ahead of next week’s rate-setting meeting.

“We . . . suspect he will sound as opaque as [his predecessor Alan] Greenspan, not due to stylistic similarities, but the reality of data dependency,” said David Ader, Treasury strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. Recent US economic data have appeared benign, causing market participants to scale back their expectations for future rate increases.

By late afternoon in New York, 10-year yields were 1.8 basis points lower at 4.658 per cent, flattening the US yield curve as two-year yields declined by just 0.4bp to 4.649 per cent.

Eurozone government bond prices got a lift from the US market, pushing the yield on the two-year Schatz down 2.6bp to 3.206 per cent and the 10-year Bund yield 1.4bp lower to 3.662 per cent.

Meanwhile, the much anticipated funding remit for the UK Debt Management Office, expected after the UK Budget is announced on Wednesday, dominated the thoughts of gilt investors, who kept activity subdued despite the release of worse than expected public finance figures for February.

Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the figures suggested some of the recent talk of a significant improvement in the country’s fiscal position had been “premature”.

Demand from pension funds for long-dated assets has helped fuel distortions at the very long end of the gilt market in recent months. Chris Lupoli of UBS said next year’s fiscal remit was being closely watched for the maturity profile of next year’s conventional and index-linked issuance. “Clearly this will set the scene for the trading environment in gilts, especially at the long-end,” he said.

The yield on the 50-year gilt fell 1bp to 3.915 per cent by late afternoon. Meanwhile, the yield on the two-year gilt was down 0.6bp to 4.408 per cent and the 10-year gilt was yielding 4.341 per cent, down 0.2bp.

The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose 1.5bp to a new 19-month closing high of 1.730 per cent.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f35fc11a-b80a-11da-bfc5-0000779e2340.html

From the Financial Times:

By Kevin Morrison

Published: March 20 2006 11:35 | Last updated: March 20 2006 18:55

Copper prices hit a new high on Monday because of concerns about the availability of the metal and because of global inventories being near critically low levels. Zinc prices matched the record high set on Friday as traders worried about its diminishing stockpiles amid strong demand.

The three-month copper price touched $5,165.5 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, exceeding the record set on Friday by $3. The fact that prices have held up above $5,100 after a $200 increase on Friday has given traders confidence that further record highs might be reached soon.

Traders said the sharp run in the past few sessions caught some investors by surprise, forcing them to cover short positions, or trades, to sell the metal.

“The rule in the copper market is don’t go short because it always goes up,” said one base metals trader at RBC Capital Markets.

Inventories at the three main commodity exchanges that trade copper, LME, Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex, total about 200,000 tonnes – about four weeks worth of supply.

“If there was another major supply disruption, there would be plenty more upside in the price,” said the trader.

Zinc prices matched Friday’s record peak of $2,485 a tonne on the LME. Traders were keeping an eye on Xstrata’s plans to convert its McArthur River underground zinc mine in Australia into an open cut mine. The company has threatened to close the mine if Australian authorities do not approve its plans.

A base metals trader said the mine accounted for about two per cent of the global zinc concentrates market. “When supplies are already tight any further reduction in production would be felt,” he said.

Gold prices were steady at $554.30/$555.20 a troy ounce in early New York trade.

Silver prices hovered near their 22-year highs, trading at $10.33/$10.36 a troy ounce, down 10 cents from Friday’s 22-year peak.

Crude oil futures fell following strong gains last week, but the market remained concerned about the potential for further supply disruptions in Nigeria after attacks on a pipeline.

An ENI-owned pipeline was attacked at the weekend, further disrupting exports from Nigeria, which is Africa’s largest producer, and is already down 25 per cent in the past month. However, US stockpiles are near seven-year highs, which indicates there is plenty of crude oil available.

IPE Brent for May delivery fell $1 to $62.26 a barrel in late afternoon trade. April West Texas Intermediate fell $1.47 cents to $61.30 a barrel in early afternoon New York trade. The April WTI contract expires at the close of trade on Tuesday. May WTI dropped $1.20 to $63.00.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/72851e3a-b802-11da-bfc5-0000779e2340.html

From the Financial Times:

By Steve Johnson

Published: March 20 2006 12:06 | Last updated: March 20 2006 17:54

The yen ended a choppy day in negative territory on Monday despite talk of further liquidation of short-yen positions.

The commodity currencies of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and South Africa all suffered sizeable losses on Monday, with much of the weakness attributed to a continued lightening of positions by hedge funds and other carry trade investors, many of which used the yen as a funding currency to chase higher yields elsewhere.

Japanese retail investors, who have fallen over themselves to buy uridashi bonds denominated in the currencies of New Zealand, Australia and South Africa in the past five years are also believed to be losing their appetite to increase their positions, leading many commentators to suspect that redemptions of such bonds will soon start to exceed new issuance.

Against this backdrop the yen extended the gains it has made since the Bank of Japan announced the end of its ultra-loose monetary policy on March 9, pushing to Y115.52 against the US dollar, Y140.70 against the euro and Y202.82 versus sterling.

However by mid-session New York trade the yen had reversed to sit at Y116.31 against the dollar, 0.4 per cent lower on the day, down 0.2 per cent at Y141.45 to the euro and off 0.3 per cent at Y204.13 against sterling.

Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, partially attributed the yen’s reversal to technical factors, with a run at Y115.50 to the greenback being defeated. Japan Post and a number of other big Japanese investment companies were said to have supported the dollar at this level.

Mr Halpenny, also saw evidence of significant selling of yen and buying of dollars by Japanese importers ahead of a public holiday today. The Bank of Tokyo’s in-house flow index revealed that dollar buying by Japanese importers was 50 per cent greater than dollar selling by Japanese exporters.

With the yen having rallied from Y117.80 to the dollar prior to the Bank of Japan’s policy change, some traders may also hae been unsettled by comments from Koichi Hosokawa, Japan’s vice finance minister, who said sudden moves in the yen were undesirable.

“There were some rough moves in the market in recent weeks. We will monitor the market carefully,” he said.

The dollar was little changed at $1.2160 against the euro and $1.7548 versus sterling, with trading light ahead of a speech due later on Monday from Ben Bernanke, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Elsewhere the Hungarian forint fell 0.9 per cent to Ft262.26 to the euro as the National Bank left interest rates unchanged at 6 per cent and said a possible hike was not even discussed, despite the forint’s 5.5 per cent slide since late January.

Elisabeth Gruie, emerging markets currency strategist at BNP Paribas, saw scope for the forint to fall as low as Ft268 to the euro by April, with the currency unlikely to gain much support ahead of the second round of voting in parliamentary elections, due on April 23.

“Political uncertainty will be accompanied by disappointing budget and foreign trade data,” she said. “This will leave the forint vulnerable unless the National Bank decides on a major policy tightening.”

The Polish zloty was also held back by a degree of political uncertainty, slipping 0.7 per cent to 3.8781 zlotys to the euro after Jarosla Kaczynski, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice party, said he would file a motion to dissolve parliament this week.

However the Chinese renminbi rose a further 0.09 per cent to a new post-revaluation high of Rmb8.0241 to the dollar on the day that US senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, who favour the imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports to the US unless Beijing allows its currency to strengthen, arrived in China.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/da48cfe8-b808-11da-bfc5-0000779e2340.html