These will be regularly posted on my You Tube Channel starting this week. Enjoy.

An appropriate mind game for the beginning of a new year, a new presidency, perhaps even a new era in IR: what are your predictions for the coming two years, what developments are we to witness between now and 2011, what themes and topics will dominate the international headlines, what will be our (America’s) prime concerns?

Imagine you’re a political novelist expected to deliver a spy thriller set in the Middle East in mid 2010, to hit bookstores in the fall of 2011. What do you anticipate the public’s interest to be? Resource wars (oil – a bit trite, isn’t it? – water), new developments in the “war on terror” (although I hope this phrase to no longer exist in 2011), private military contractors gone berserk, Iranian nuclear enrichment, the never-ending quest for peace in Israel/Palestine, the economic rise of the Gulf States, the quagmire the US faces in Afghanistan/Pakistan, the future of Iraq after US withdrawal? Most important, do you think the American public will continue to be interested in developments abroad at all or is the coming recession going to overshadow everything and turn readers’ demands from tales from foreign shores to bread and butter issues at home, is America going to experience an isolationist revival?

Perhaps all this won't matter as former KGB analyst, Russian professor Igor Panarin predicts a breakup of the US (check out the map!) for June 2011. According to him, Sarah Palin will have a Russian passport, Californians the Yuan as their currency, and Sean Paul will have to return home to San Antonio via immigrations in Ciudad Mexico by then.

Let’s share well-grounded thoughts, estimations, predictions, forecasts, prophecies (no end time scenarios and nothing like the above wishful thinking, please)in an open thread, the more the better!

I'm glad you all enjoy debating Professor Panarin's pipe dreams, but that was only meant as an amusing side note. What I'm truly interested in is your take on whether the current recession will overshadow interest in the wider Middle East among American fiction readers. Please share your thoughts with me on that one, too!

I don't get how $300,000,000,000 in tax cuts is going to help. I just don't see it. I'm with George on this one too:

So, OK, the message is that he does talk when he's pursuing Republican policies in synch with W. And the word "change" in Mr. Obama's lexicon must mean "I will give the Republicans whatever they want and without any negotiation." It's none too soon to begin drawing conclusions.

Unity porn strikes again! And folks, these are actions, not just words. He's literally days away from becoming president and the new Congress will be seated very soon and start working on a stimulus plan. But how can tax cuts be a part of that? To hell with tax cuts. That's the kind of thinking that got us where we are.

As Krugman writes:

This is a problem with which Keynes was familiar: giving money away, he pointed out, tends to be met with fewer objections than plans for public investment “which, because they are not wholly wasteful, tend to be judged on strict ‘business’ principles.” What gets lost in such discussions is the key argument for economic stimulus — namely, that under current conditions, a surge in public spending would employ Americans who would otherwise be unemployed and money that would otherwise be sitting idle, and put both to work producing something useful.

Or this:

[P]ublic investment offers more bang for the buck. Second, public investment leaves something of value behind when the stimulus is over.

$300,000,000,000 in tax cuts is not going to put people to work. It's not going to leave anything of value behind once it is spent, saved or whatever. Face it, an extra $500 credit per person isn't going to do squat.

If you want an idea of what is needed you can do no better than to listen to this excellent podcast on the WPA. It's full of rock solid ideas for today that will put people to work. It's jobs that people need, not phantom tax cuts. Seriously, how do tax cuts help when you don't have an income?

As I await my return to Malaysia tomorrow I've spent some time pondering the differences between Sumatra in particular and Indonesia in general versus the rest of South-East Asia. Indonesia is not of East Asia, not by a long shot. If anything it resembles an odd cross between India and Polynesia. Indeed, I believe Indonesia is often referred to as a part of Melanesia. It's certainly not of the West, either, having its own rhythms and its own unique way of doing things. But does it have much, if anything at all in common with the rest of South-East Asia? No.

For starters it is dominated by Islam (Aceh, Sumatra, and Java) with large pockets of Christianity (Bataks and the Nusa Tenggara island chain), Hinduism (in Bali) and tribal animism (Papua and other far out islands). There is no Buddhism here, nor is there any real Confucian influence, outside of the small Overseas Chinese communities, which make up about 3% of the population of Indonesia.

(The entire archive of Indonesia photos can be found here.)

Second, the peoples: they are extremely diverse. Some of them have the pan-East Asia look, but most do not, looking more like a cross between Arab, Hindu and Polynesian, with some even resembling the Aboriginal peoples of Australia. They are built differently. The women have wider hips and larger breasts than those in East Asia. The men are taller have broader chests and their hair, men and women alike is much more varied than the straight, coarse black hair so common across East Asia.

More after the jump.

As much criticism as I have leveled at Obama lately one thing struck me yesterday as I made the journey from Parapat to Medan. In just three weeks a man by the name of Barack Hussein Obama will raise his hand and take the Oath of Office.

Just think about it: "I Barack Hussein Obama do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States."

That will be one powerful moment. And I will be proud to witness it. I always assumed I would live to see a woman become president but not a black man. Amidst all the gloom and doom this is something we can all take pride in, that in one sense America is living up to its values.

I broke down yesterday and coughed up $30 a night for a nice hotel. And let me tell you, $30 gets you a nice hotel in Medan. As I mentioned yesterday the mini-bus I was in was built for 9 and there were 17 of us in it. Needless to say my back took a beating and I have been paying the price since the moment I climbed out of the van. So, that's why I'm staying in a relatively upscale hotel.

With the upscale comes satellite TV. And in a largely Muslim country of course one of the main channels is Al Jezeera. Make no mistake about it, there is nothing fair and balanced about Al Jezeera. It is Arab TV for Arabs and Muslims the world over. But that doesn't take away from the fact that Al Jazeera does quality journalism. If only a tenth of the images of Palestinian suffering made their way onto American TV Americans would be in an uproar about what is being done there.

If the real quotes, sound bites and comments made by Israeli leaders were actually shown on American TV and juxtaposed with the visuals of destruction being rained down on Gaza by our weapons, paid for by us, the taxpayers, Americans would be in an uproar.

Instead, we get the usual neo-con, Likudnik supporters on American TV explaining why Israeli is justified in the slaughter of at least 500 Palestinians for Hamas' stupid policy of shooting glorified bottle rockets into Southern Israel.

As Chris Rock might say, "I'm not saying it's right, but I understand."

We're all used to reading stories about rural areas not having enough doctors in Third World countries, but in America? Read it and weep:

For the one-quarter of Americans who live outside metropolitan areas, general surgeons are the essential ingredient that keeps full-service medical care within reach. Without general surgeons as backup, family practitioners can't deliver babies, emergency rooms can't take trauma cases, and most internists won't do complicated procedures such as colonoscopies. But various forces -- educational, medical and sociological -- are making them an endangered species.

Great news, yeah?

I'm with Col. Lang's correspondent on all of these ideas, especially this one:

Put together a 2 year national service program, mandatory, from ages 18 through 20 and have young people involved live overseas for part of the time. On this point, I agree with Charlie Rangel that the loss of the draft and short military service has helped us grow isolated. Anytime I meet a young person who has done an overseas stint, even for a semester, they are changed forever in the ‘my eyes are opened’ manner.

On a positive note: I have met a few (very few) young Americans on this journey that are special people, who will be changed forever by their experience.

Read the whole post. Lots of common sense.

Israel has claimed that it is taking all precautions to minimize civilian loss of life and casualties. This is bullshit.

One example of this is the use of White Phosphorus rounds in a way where the phosphorus does not burn off before it hits the ground. Phosphorus burns more or less on contact with air, and keeps burning until deprived of oxygen. People who suffer phosphorus burns not only have terrible burns, but they absorb the phosphorus through the skin, and suffer acute phosphorus poisoning. This used to be more common than it is, because phosphorus was used in friction matches and in industrial processes, it was sold for rat poison. During World War II, it was dropped on London as part of "the blitz." In the 1940's it was called by one journal article a menace to public health after noting that 50% of the people admitted for phosphorous poisoning died, as compared to 6% of all other non-alcohol poisonings.

So while using phosphorus rounds itself isn't against the relevant treaties, using it in a way that takes advantage of its toxic qualities makes it a chemical weapon, and it is completely inconsistent with any claim to be cautious or worrying about civilian loss of life to use it in a populated area, and allowing it to fall to the ground.

I've got to say, I'm with Mr. Rajan on this very counter-intuitive idea that foreign aid just doesn't work:

The Jackson Hole contretemps followed by a few months another set of attacks on Mr. Rajan for a study he co-wrote at the IMF that concluded foreign aid didn't help developing countries grow.

Take Cambodia for example. Literally billions are poured into the country each year from NGOs. (The UN is a bit different as it does much more good with its health programs than it does ill.) Inflation is out of control. Farmers cannot afford food. Corruption is rampant. Most of the aid never reaches the people it is intended to reach.

Then there is the fact that the aid workers, the folks with the NGOs and other organizations are always ensconced behind high walled compounds, driving brand new Land Rovers and Toyota SUVs. They are very disconnected from the people they are trying to help. For a good example of what I am talking about listen to this podcast about Kabul. The criticism is damning.

I don't have the answers. And I do believe rich nations have an obligation to help the poorer ones. But the current system is inherently flawed and the international community needs to do a rethink.

A recent and acrimonious debate between American Jewish leaders regarding the Gaza strikes reflects a struggle over the meaning of "support for Israel." Some progressives may react with kneejerk antipathy to that phrase, believing that like "I support the troops," the possibility of any meaning other than a right-wing hawkishness has long ago been crowded out. But I believe that if we can reconfigure the notion of support for Israel, we can fundamentally change the dynamic of our domestic debate on the Arab-Israeli conflict. That, in turn, will allow our leaders to play a role in halting, instead of perpetuating, the conflict.

No, I wasn't any where near the earthquake in Papua. That's like thousands of miles away from where I am. But damn, I miss Toba already. I left this morning. I didn't want to leave. And I will return. I don't know when but I have a project in mind with regards to Toba and the Batak people.

I took some photos on my iPhone on the way back into Medan. There was a massive landslide on the road out of town and traffic was blocked for a few hours until they cleared one lane. My mini-bus was built to seat nine, but there were seventeen of us in it, including an adorable little girl next to me.

I took some photos of a rubber plantation owned by Bridgestone. Real rubber trees. How cool is that? And I took two photos of a small town flooded by the local river but still going about business as usual. I admire the Indonesians. They have fortitude and toughness, but are amazingly kind.

As I the ferry pulled out from my guest house the whole family was there waving me good-bye. It brought tears to my eyes. I've been to some special places, folks, but Lake Toba? It's the greatest place I've ever been. Hands down. Beats them all. I don't know if it was the people, the island, the scenery, the coffee or something in the air. But a piece of my heart is still there and always will be.

The basic doctrine of counter-guerilla warfare is Isolate, Concentrate, Anihilate. Separate guerrillas from the population, drive them into a small area, and use superior fire power to destroy them. Israel has skipped the first step, and is attacking Gaza on the theory that now that Hamas is concentrated, it is time to use all possible force to destroy them.

It is very likely that they will do horrific damage - to the moderate wing of Hamas. To the wing of Hamas that had designs on being a political party leading a state. However, to the violent wing of Hamas, which may morph into another organization, the offensive is almost calculated to create a permanent terrorist movement.

I'll be leaving Lake Toba tomorrow, early and won't be near a computer for a few days. But I wanted to leave you all with my best memory of Toba: New Year's Eve.

From my travel journal:

"Yesterday was a good way to end 2008. I didn't do much--had breakfast at my guesthouse, wrote, went up to Samosir Cottages to check my email, read some Thucydides, and then roused myself up--some how finding a hidden store of energy--and went to the bookstore. I bought two new books: The Walled Orchard, by Tom Holt, which is a comic retelling of the Peloponnesian War and Gates of Rome, by Conn Iggulden, about the early life of Julius Ceasar.

More after the jump.

Sabbath eve, January 2, 2009.

As the new year approached a farmer friend of mine reminded me that I needed to register our wheat fields in order to be able to receive a potential government disaster relief payment. Getting government handouts never has been high on my list. Especially with all the bureaucratic b.s. necessary to stay in compliance with those programs.

But I do have a duty to my father, who also happens to be my employer. While we have family farms and I have the liberty to make most decisions around the farm, I do not own the land. I am a salaried employee.

So I picked up the phone a couple of days before the deadline on my dad’s behalf and made the call. A secretary answered and told me the woman in charge of such matters was on vacation. The woman is difficult to begin with, jealous of her territory and the power she wields. Show up without an appointment at her office; don’t expect to be received. Do expect to be scolded.

Go read Ddjango, now. Please.

On that note, I asked one of our readers to provide a list of Jews who opposed the current policies vis-a-vis Palestine. He did so. Here is the list. Please peruse them when you have the time. It is important that these voices be heard:

http://www.tikkun.org/ (Tikkun Magazine, edited by Rabbi Michael Lerner, definitely a guy to know about)

http://www.peacenowar.net/newpeace/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=481&Itemid=1

http://thewestbank.blogspot.com/2007/02/voices-of-jewish-opposition-to.html

http://www.icahd.org/eng/

http://www.jewishvoiceforpeace.org

http://www.jewishfriendspalestine.org/

Many Israeli Refuseniks (the word can mean different things, but in this case it applies to draft resisters) are internationally known voices for peace, as are organizations of Israeli ex-military personnel. Many of them travel widely to speak at public events. You can look them up yourself.

Ships defying the Gaza blockade have carried, among others, Jewish academics and journalists.
http://www.ccun.org/News/2008/December/9%20n/Fourth%20blockade-defying%20ship%20reaches%20Gaza.htm

This is just one of the many Jewish-sponsored or -cosponsored education and protest events that I have been invited to in the Twin Cities recently:
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Saturday, January 24, 2009
DVD Presentation: An Idea Whose Time Has Come: Transforming Palestine/Israel Into A Single, Secular, Democratic State

A DVD panel discussion presented by the Committee for Open Discussion of Zionism (CODZ) June 7, 2008. Moderator: Rabbi Susan Einbinder: Panelists: Ali Abunimah, co-founder and editor of the Electronic Intifada: Kathleen Christison, author of Perceptions of Palestine: Their Influence on U.S. Middle East Policy; Amaya Galili, Israeli activist with Zochrot, a group working to raise Israeli consciousness of the Nakba; Joel Kovel, editor of Capitalism Nature Socialism, and author of Overcoming Zionism.

Sponsored by Middle East Peace Now (MEPN). WAMM is a member of MEPN.
http://www.worldwidewamm.org/calendar.html

I haven't been writing much about Lake Toba lately for two reasons: one, I'm still recovering from my unfortunate encounter with the water buffalo and two, there really isn't much to blog about when all you do is walk around, hang out with the locals, gossip, read, relax, talk some more, sing some songs and generally do nothing. But, I've got photos here from New Year's Eve and the amazing rain shower yesterday, so you can check those out if you like.

I realized today that it's been six months since I left home--Austin, to be exact--and a little more than three months since I left my job. I had a return flight from Singapore to Austin on December 24th, but clearly, I'm not ready to return. Bruised ribs aside, I feel great. The only adventure I've had in the last few days was the drive to Siantar, an hour north of here to get some cash.

More after the jump.

Tomorrow, January 2, I will be on the Chris Duel Show on San Antonio's 550 KTSA at approximately 6:06 PM Central Time. Please tune in if you can.

I’ve read many prognoses for the coming year. They range from cautiously optimistic— those expecting gradual economic recovery—to predictions entailing a massive die-off. Most fall somewhere between these two extremes; the majority predict at best, continued hard times.

I’m hesitant to predict the future; in my mind predicting the future is prophesying. People alter paths based on things they hear; I don’t want to be responsible for misleading others. On the other hand, if I honestly believe something profound is going to happen then it’s my duty to suck it up and say what must be said.

What is the difference between the and those? If you are Barack Obama, it may determine whether you have a successful presidency, and at the very least it defines how much maneuverability you will have in the financial markets. To give an example, suppose I said “Damn the deficit! Full speed ahead.” This is an altogether different statement than “Damn those deficits! We have enough debt.”

The first sentence is how the global bond market has approached the U.S. financial condition for the past fifteen years. The focus is short term and singular – the market looks at the deficit racked up in the past fiscal year. Year by year goes by, and nobody notices how the annual deficit creeps higher and higher. When economic conditions worsen, the market says “I don’t give a damn about the deficit – go ahead and borrow more.”

The second sentence was how the bond market used to approach the issue; the concern was on the cumulative deficits, or in other words, the total debt. In this second mode, the market penalizes each incremental borrowing because it expands the total debt and is seen as hurting investors.

Obviously the first approach is a very indulgent view of U.S. borrowing and has allowed for an enormous expansion of the federal deficit. How did we get into this situation? There are quite a number of biases that helped create this tolerance.

In an opinion piece in today's Washington Post Ruth Marcus poses the question:

"Should Bush administration officials be put on trial for crimes such as authorizing torture?"

Bear in mind that I live in a flyover state where many have limited tolerance for carefully parsed, nuanced or constipated prose, preferring instead to "throw it out on the lawn and see if any dogs come up and pee on it."

Ms Marcus says, less pithily and with a bit more ambiguity, that she is:

"just relieved to have this crowd heading out of office and its policies -- on torture, on indefinite detention, on warrantless wiretapping, on overweening executive power -- soon to be inoperative."

I share her delight in the departure of this gang of criminals but I fear that if they do not leave Washington in handcuffs and leg irons aboard a Federal prison bus that the chances of rendering the "policies" stated above "inoperative" are approximately ... zero.

SYDNEY

SLIDESHOW

I'll be on the Chris Duel Show, 550 KTSA, out of San Antonio, the morning of the 31st, in one of these segments: 5:37am, 6:03am and 6:35am. All times are US Central Time. If you get a chance tune in, Chris and I always have fun, and I am liable to say some really outrageous things!

We've been nominated and are once again a finalist for the category 'Best Large Blog (Authority between 301-500' by the folks over at the Weblog Awards. This is the third or fourth year in a row we've been nominated and I would very much like to see The Agonist win.

So, voting begins January 5, 2009. We'll keep everyone posted.